Death of Baghdadi may not reduce IS militant menace
Such strikes can be counterproductive, strengthening resolve and encouraging retaliation, says Rand Corporation
When Donald Trump announced the killing of the leader of Islamic State (IS) on Sunday in a US operation, he hailed it as an immediate change to global security. The death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the US president said, had brought a brutal killer to justice and would make the world “a much safer place”.
Baghdadi’s death was undoubtedly a symbolic blow for a once-potent terror group which is losing its power, analysts said: earlier in 2019, IS surrendered the last portion of its self-proclaimed caliphate, a sliver of land in northeastern Syria, to US-backed forces.
“It’s not every day that we take out the leader of the most powerful terrorist organisation in the world. In terms of Western counterterrorism policy, it’s a huge development,” said Charles Lister, counterterrorism director at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
But removing the group’s leader may not make the diffuse coalition of militants any less dangerous, especially in the short term. The US military’s own analysis estimates that the number of IS fighters, facilitators, and other supporters dispersed across Iraq and Syria still number 14,000 to 30,000.
A paper by the Rand Corporation, a US think-tank, argues that such strikes against the heads of terror groups can even be counterproductive, given the potential to strengthen their resolve and encourage retaliatory attacks.
Killings of leaders can increase sympathy for the organisation beyond its core followers, Rand said. One study quoted by the think-tank suggested the removal of a group’s mid-level commanders is more effective in preventing the day-to-day work of carrying out future attacks.
Still, Baghdadi’s importance to IS will give his death a particular sting. Born Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim al-Badri, he was a cleric before going to fight the US occupation of Iraq. Briefly detained by US forces at Camp Bucca, he is thought to have made links during this time with the newly formed group al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Once released, he led Islamic State of Iraq, IS’s predecessor. He gained international notoriety in 2013 when he broke with al-Qaeda and announced the formation of IS, becoming the head of its caliphate.
Intelligence officials around the world must now grapple with what Baghdadi’s death will mean for the group’s future. Lister played down suggestions of any immediate change to its operations. “IS is an excessively bureaucratic organisation and has a plan for everything,” he said. “There was almost certainly a list of potential successors set out. IS will recover from this.”
While the US and its allies could shore up this gain by redoubling counterterror operations against IS in Iraq and Syria, Trump has already indicated that his priority is to withdraw from the region. Even though IS is weaker now than it has been for several years, Lister believes the group will continue with business as usual.
“Even with Baghdadi dead, the plan will remain the same going to ground and operating semi-autonomously in dispersed cells. This group takes opportunities when they arise we are not going to see any dramatic reaction, either positive or negative,” he said.
Counterterror experts say there is no obvious successor to Baghdadi in the group, which could be both a weakness within Isis and a driver of volatility in the region.
Raffaello Pantucci, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said there is a chance that with Baghdadi’s death, the personal alliances and links he created will ebb away, harming IS’s security on the ground and making other senior figures more vulnerable.
Leaders in IS factions in Syria and Iraq may also now feel this is a moment to demonstrate their strength.
“The threat to opponents can be worse in the wake of an event like this because younger people coming up through the ranks may think they have to do something that’s more daring and significant to prove themselves worthy of leadership,” he said.
The public show of strength by the US may provoke individuals to act. “Someone who’s an adherent to the group but not closely involved with it [may] think this is the time to step up and reassert its reputation,” Pantucci said.
Another concern is that IS will seek help from former allies, such as al-Qaeda providing them with a strategic boost even though these groups have been fiercely opposed to one another in recent years. Before his death, the IS leader is thought to have established links with at least one senior al-Qaeda figure. It is possible that, with some help from IS, al-Qaeda will now try to reassert itself.
Baghdadi’s death “is a victory and a significant achievement”, Lister said. “But the byproduct is great uncertainty about what comes next, and who comes next, and what this means for the threat that IS now presents.” /©
Afghanistan has welcomed the reported death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as a major blow to terrorism that is expected to weaken the South Asian branch of the Middle Eastern militant group.
The emergence of an Afghan affiliate of Islamic State in recent years created another enemy for the US-backed government, which has been fighting against the much larger Taliban insurgency since 2001.
“The Afghan government strongly welcomes the US forces’ operation that led to the death of Baghdadi,” a spokesperson for President Ashraf Ghani said on Twitter. “The death ... is the biggest blow to this group and to terrorism,” Sediq Sediqqi said.
Baghdadi, who had led the jihadist group since 2010, reportedly killed himself during a raid by US special forces on his hideout in northwest Syria early on Sunday. His death was announced by US President Donald Trump.
The leadership of Islamic State in Khorasan (Isis-K), named after an old name for the region that covered much of modern-day Afghanistan and parts of Central Asia, had pledged allegiance to Baghdadi but it was unclear what direct operational links the two groups had. The Afghan affiliate first appeared in 2014, in the eastern province of Nangarhar, where it retains a stronghold.
It announced its formation in January 2015 and has since made inroads in other areas, particularly the north, sometimes bringing it into conflict with the rival Afghan Taliban.
It has also carried out bloody attacks on civilian targets in Kabul and other cities, but many Afghan officials doubt some of its claims, and the group remains little understood.
Attaullah Khogyani, spokesperson for the governor of Nangarhar, said the militant faction had grown weaker recently, and the death of Baghdadi would be a hard blow for it.
“No doubt, Baghdadi’s death will have a deep impact on Daesh’s activities in Afghanistan,” said Khogyani, referring to Islamic State.
The US military estimates the strength of Isis-K at 2,000 fighters. Some Afghan officials put the number higher. But Khogyani said numerous members had been killed in clashes or had surrendered over recent months. “Now we expect an increase in surrenders,” he said.
An Islamic State fighter, reached in eastern Afghanistan by phone, said he suspects news of Baghdadi’s death is fake.
“If the US really killed him, they should show the evidence, show the body,” said the militant, who identified himself as Shaheen. “But let’s say he was killed, it wouldn’t matter. Our struggle is not for Baghdadi, our struggle against the infidels is for Allah.”
ISLAMIC STATE HAS A PLAN FOR EVERYTHING. THERE WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY A LIST OF SUCCESSORS SET OUT. IT WILL RECOVER
THE TALIBAN HAVE SINCE GROWN STRONGER AND NOW CONTROL MORE TERRITORY THAN AT ANY TIME SINCE THEIR OUSTER IN 2001
A spokesperson for the Taliban dismissed any suggestion the purported Afghan Islamic State branch had any link with Islamic State in the Middle East.
The group was cooked up by the US-backed Afghan government and US-led Nato forces, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said.
“The Taliban will fight them to the death,” he said.
Afghans have seen for themselves what effect, or lack of one, the death of a militant commander can have on a group.
The Taliban officially confirmed in July 2015 that their supreme leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, had been dead for more than two years. While that brought a brief spell of factional rivalry, the Taliban have since grown stronger and now control more territory than at any time since their ouster from power in 2001.