Vaccine is no magic bullet

All we need is a vaccine. One dose will end the Covid-19 plague, and it’s coming soon — really! That’s the drumbeat from President Donald Trump and others pushing to reopen the US economy and offering unrealistic timetables to get there, often contradicting public health experts.

While we all want this nightmare to end, the reality about a vaccine is quite different. Developing the right drug, and putting it through necessary trials to see whether it is effective while measuring its negative ramifications, takes time, even on an accelerated schedule. Then it must be manufactured and distributed, and administered to hundreds of millions of people.

It is important to manage expectations; to understand that a vaccine is not imminent and is not a cure-all. Political leaders who are suggesting a vaccine will be like a snap of the fingers risk losing our trust. On Sunday Trump said he expects to have a vaccine by year’s end. But that is not likely. All vaccines are in the research stage. Johnson & Johnson has said its first batches will not be ready until early 2021. Human clinical trials will not start until September. After a vaccine is in place, ramping up production will be key. But it does not help that the US is not participating in the World Health Organisation’s global effort to accelerate the development of, and access to, treatments and vaccines. Also, some researchers have said the vaccine might be a seasonal one — similar to the flu, where people have to be immunised annually.

Once a vaccine is approved, it is likely to be met with doubt. But the only way any vaccine will work is if the vast majority of the population believes in it and is willing to take it. So its availability must be matched with a public awareness campaign to encourage mass use.

Meanwhile, scientists are making progress on finding therapeutic drugs to treat those who have Covid-19. /New York, May 4