Cape Town deaths soar for a second week

• Western Cape’s Covid-19 cases account for two-thirds of SA’s total

The number of natural deaths recorded in Cape Town in the week to May 26 was about 25% higher than is usually seen at this time of year, according to the latest weekly death report from the Medical Research Council (MRC). It is the second week in a row that the MRC has reported a sharp rise in natural deaths in Cape Town, highlighting the city’s growing Covid-19 epidemic.

The number of natural deaths recorded in Cape Town in the week to May 26 was about 25% higher than is usually seen at this time of year, according to the Medical Research Council’s (MRC’s) latest weekly fatalities report.

This is the second week running that the MRC has reported a sharp rise in natural deaths in Cape Town, highlighting the city’s mounting Covid-19 epidemic.

In the week ended May 26, altogether 707 natural deaths were recorded in Cape Town.

Based on previous trends, medical researchers would have expected to see about 560 natural deaths during this period, said the director of the MRC’s burden of disease unit, Debbie Bradshaw.

By Tuesday, Cape Town had recorded more than 19,000 cases of Covid-19, which is far more than any other metropolitan area in SA.

The city has more than 8% of the 23,000 or so reported cases in the Western Cape.

The Western Cape’s Covid-19 cases account for two-thirds of SA’s total of 35,800.

Natural deaths are those caused by an infection or disease such as cancer, and exclude those involving an external cause such as road traffic accidents or murder. The MRC researchers used death records from the department of home affairs to compare the weekly number of deaths from natural and unnatural causes to the trends that were observed in previous years.

They used trends of prior years to project the expected weekly deaths for provinces and metropolitan areas, with an upper and lower bound.

The number of weekly deaths from natural causes in Cape Town was above the upper prediction bound of 640, which the MRC said indicated a statistically significant increase.

The number of deaths from unnatural causes was significantly lower during the lockdown compared with that of previous years, due to fewer traffic accidents and homicides, but it had begun to increase as lockdown restrictions had eased, said the MRC.

The MRC’s weekly death analysis covers only people with SA identity numbers, and it excludes babies under the age of one year.

BY TUESDAY, CAPE TOWN RECORDED MORE THAN 19,000 COVID-19 CASES, FAR MORE THAN ANY OTHER SA METROPOLITAN AREA