Western Cape ‘may have reached peak’
• Virus attack rate has fallen, says Discovery Health
The Western Cape may have reached the peak of its coronavirus outbreak, says SA’s biggest medical scheme administrator, Discovery Health. This was the first province hit by soaring Covid-19 infections. Officials said last week the latest models projected infections peaking in late July or early August.
The Western Cape may have already reached the peak of its coronavirus outbreak, according to SA’s biggest medical scheme administrator, Discovery Health.
The Western Cape was the first province to see soaring Covid-19 infections, and last week said its latest models project a peak in infections in late July or early August.
But on Thursday Discovery Health CEO Ryan Noach said there were signs the province may have already reached its peak, as the attack rate and private hospital bed occupancy rates had fallen significantly in the past few weeks. The attack rate is the proportion of people who become ill with a disease in a set time period.
“On 21 June the attack rate peaked at 24 per 100,000 lives per day. Since then it has come down to about 17 per 100,000 lives [per day]. It has flattened off a bit now, and one of either two things is going to happen: either it is going to have a second peak, which would be unusual, or it will continue its downward trajectory. The next few days will tell,” he said.
“What is also relevant is that the [private] hospital bed occupancy across the country is 55% … but this week Western Cape is below 40%,” he said. The private hospital bed occupancy rate had been as high as 70% in the Western Cape, he told Business Day shortly after addressing a seminar hosted by Absa Healthcare.
“Hospitals look a bit emptier and the attack rate has come down. On the data it does look like there are some favourable signs,” he said.
By contrast, private hospital bed occupancy in Gauteng was around the 65% mark, he said.
Gauteng has seen a rapid surge in Covid-19 cases in the past few weeks. The number of Covid-19 patients admitted to public and private hospitals in the province trebled between June 24 and July 8, rising from 956 to 3,167 during that period.
Claims analysis of Discovery Health Medical Scheme (DHMS) members who were confirmed to have Covid-19 indicated a relatively low case fatality rate by international standards of 1.3%, he said. DHMS is Discovery Health’s biggest client.
Membership had remained stable despite the job losses and economic uncertainty precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, he said.
Last week the Western Cape health department said it had revised its coronavirus projections and expected a flatter but more deadly epidemic curve that would peak in late July or August and then hold sway until at least November. It previously anticipated a steep surge in late June, which did not materialise to the extent that was expected.
A flatter trajectory would mean less pressure on health services because the number of patients would be spread out over a longer period.