Asean’s handling of Myanmar issue to test its credibility
People power is rising up against the military coup in Myanmar. The nationwide Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) in Myanmar has been picking up momentum. The CDM began with doctors going on a nationwide strike. This was followed by teachers, students and public servants.
What is both encouraging and alarming is 10 ethnic armed groups, representing Myanmar’s minorities, have signed the national cease-fire agreement on February 20 and threw their support behind the CDM. “The future seems harder.
We have to stand together with the whole public,” said Gen Yawd Serk, chair of the Restoration Council of Shan State.
The Shan people are the largest minority of Myanmar, and live in northern Myanmar and adjacent countries. The Karen National Union and Kachin Independence Organisation, representing their respective minority peoples, have all rejected the Tatmadaw, who had hoped to woo them by leveraging their frustrations over the slow pace of reform by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy over the past five years.
It appears the generals miscalculated. The minority peoples may be frustrated with Suu Kyi, but they hate the military junta more. The Tatmadaw, led by Gen Min Aung Hlaing, sees itself as the guardian of the Myanmar nation. In the same way that a parent might chastise an errant child, the Tatmadaw sees itself as knowing The Tatmadaw better’than s proxy the party, people. This despite repeated evidence to the contrary. the Union Solidarity and Development Party, lost the November 8 election in a landslide to Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy. Since the coup on February 1, where the military arrested Suu Kyi and other leaders on the morning before a new parliament was to be sworn in, there have been regular protests. Struggling to contain protests and civil disobedience actions, the military have resorted to deadly force, with 20 people reportedly dead and hundreds arrested.
International resistance against the military coup is also building. In an emotional speech from the UN General Assembly floor, Myanmar’s representative at the UN, Kyaw Moe Tun, openly called for the international community not to cooperate with the military until it hands power back to the democratically elected government. The ambassador’s sacking was promptly announced on television, but it is not clear if the military junta has the authority.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) met on Tuesday after a conspicuous silence and released a statement on the coup. The formal statement called for all parties in Myanmar to “exercise utmost restraint as well as flexibility”.
Asean should be taking the lead in releasing the pressure valve. The coup was plainly illegal. However, the Asean group is divided. Thailand in particular should be speaking up, with Asean’s support on resolving the issues, as it has the most at stake. The country has a long border with Myanmar and is dependent on gas imports for electricity generation.
However, as Prof Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, pointed out in The Bangkok Post, the current Thai government also came to power in a military coup, albeit more sophisticatedly executed, and is therefore not in a position to lecture the Tatmadaw. This leaves Indonesia to initiate shuttle diplomacy to salvage the situation.
In the Indo-Pacific region the elephants in the room are China, India and Japan. The regional superpowers all have commercial, geopolitical and security skin in the game and their preferences diverge.
The thorny issue now is whether Asean will begin dialogue with the Tatmadaw by accepting it as the de facto government, or if it will begin negotiations based on the result of the November 8 elections.
The Myanmar crisis is a severe test for Asean’s credibility as a regional security organisation. The body passed a milestone by setting up one of the world’s largest common markets in late 2020. The eyes of the people of Myanmar, and the world, are now looking at Asean again.
Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.