Government still to figure out how to call the shots
With just weeks to go to what experts fear will be a renewed surge in coronavirus infections, the government has yet to determine how to sequence people in the second phase of its vaccination strategy. Health minister Zweli Mkhize’s top coronavirus adviser, Salim Abdool Karim, has consistently warned a third wave of infections is likely to coincide with the winter months, but some experts fear it could begin after Easter.
With just weeks to go to what experts fear may be a renewed surge in coronavirus infections, the government has yet to determine how to sequence people in the second phase of its vaccination strategy.
Health minister Zweli Mkhize’s top coronavirus adviser, Salim Abdool Karim, has consistently warned that a third wave of infections is likely to coincide with the winter months, but some experts fear a surge in cases could begin after Easter, as it is traditionally a period that sees large numbers of people travel to attend mass religious gatherings.
The onset of cooler temperatures also sees people spending more time indoors, often in settings with poor ventilation that increase the risk of transmission. The Easter weekend falls in early April.
Last week, Business for SA (B4SA) called for the elderly to get their jabs first to ensure the most vulnerable people are protected ahead of the next surge.
The government’s vaccination strategy has three phases, starting with health workers, before broadening out in phase 2 to essential workers, people over the age of 60, adults with co-morbidities, and people living in congregate settings such as care homes. B4SA urged the state to sequence phase 2 by age, saying the limited number of vaccines available between March and June should be prioritised for the most vulnerable.
On Monday evening, health department deputy directorgeneral Anban Pillay said work was still under way to define exactly who would be included in phase 2.
Age is “certainly the highest risk factor” for death from Covid-19; certain underlying conditions, such as diabetes, obesity, hypertension and cardiovascular disease, are also significant risk factors for more severe illness, but there are “a number of alternative views” on the sequencing of the four groups, he said.
“The health minister will need to take account of the various views and options before finalising our approach to the sequencing,” Pillay said.
He said the government hopes to start phase 2 in early May. “This is obviously dependent on the quantity of vaccines we receive to complete healthcare workers, then we can start with the phase 2 groups.”
SA faces a vaccine supply crunch in the second quarter of the year, with B4SA estimating the government will have landed only enough vaccines to cover about 6-million people by the end of June, short of the targets set for phase 1 and 2. Phase 1 aims to vaccinate 1.25-million health workers, while phase 2 targets 16.6-million people.
The health department has so far obtained a commitment from Johnson & Johnson (J&J) to supply 500,000 doses of its singleshot vaccine for a phase 3b implementation study that was launched on February 18.
J&J has also agreed to provide SA with a further 11-million doses in a bilateral agreement, but these shots will be staggered throughout the year.
A deal with Pfizer is being negotiated, but it is not clear at this stage how many doses will be earmarked for SA. Mkhize told parliament earlier in March that the final quantity might differ from the 20-million figure he had previously flighted.
Pillay said a deal with Pfizer is imminent, but declined to elaborate on why the agreement has yet to be signed, saying, “We are bound by a confidentiality agreement so I cannot discuss the areas of negotiations. Nevertheless, I can say we are close to finalisation.”