Empires self-destruct

While the fall of Kabul has dusted off Kipling poems and encouraged contemplation of such paintings as ‘Remnants of an Army’, and ‘Last stand at Gandamak’, some may remember John Bagot Glubb and his academically scorned ideas about the fate of empires.

After soldiering in the Middle East, he opined that empires last for 10 generations or about 250 years. From 2021, this would return the US to 1771, disturbingly close to the 1776 Declaration of Independence. It certainly looks as if the US is wallowing in Glubb’s “Age of Decadence”, and President Joe Biden’s shameful Afghanistan exit supports Glubb’s dictum that empires destroy themselves.

If the finger has scratched the wall, what does it portend? Nato is effectively finished. Biden’s breach of trust towards his European allies has done more in two weeks than Donald Trump could in four years. The Ukraine was already quaking before the Russian bear, now the Baltic states will be too.

Jihadi fundamentalism in Africa has just received a huge boost, while the Houthis will aim at the Saudi jugular. The Taiwanese, South Koreans and Japanese are now more exposed to Chinese power than ever, while the Australians are regretting their pro-American stance. Even the Israelis must be shivering slightly. With Rambo in frail care, who will protect the West’s treasured illusions of democracy and human rights?

As the apogee of American might was ushered in by those terrifying blasts at Nagasaki and Hiroshima, one must be concerned that its downfall might not end with a whimper...

James Cunningham Camps Bay