ANC support is at 41%, opinion poll shows

More than seven in 10 South African voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, a survey showed on Wednesday, adding to evidence of discontent in a country grappling with record high unemployment, rampant corruption and violent crime.

The survey of 2,000 adults, conducted by Ipsos on behalf of political think-tank Rivonia Circle, found that if an election was held today, the ANC would get 41% of the vote from about 26-million registered voters. It is the latest survey showing voters are losing patience with the ANC, whose electoral support has been declining.

In the municipal ’elections in 2021, it lost Gauteng s metros of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane to a DA-led multiparty coalition when its support dipped below 50% for the first time since 1994.

Other polls have put the ANC’s electoral support at below 50% in the 2024 national election, sparking worries among some that the ANC government could cling to power with destructive, populist macroeconomic policies and by raising the prospect of coalition politics.

In a news conference on Wednesday to announce the results of the survey conducted between July 25 and August 31, Rivonia Circle head of policy and research Lukhona Mnguni said 2,000 registered voters were interviewed telephonically across the country.

The survey was representative and weighted according to gender, age and race. There was a 2.2% margin of error and 95% confidence interval.

The survey found that if there were to be an election now, 65% of registered voters would “definitely vote”.

In his presentation, Mnguni, a political analyst, said about 70% of the 40-million eligible voters in SA do not vote.

This was evident during the local government elections in November 2021, when only 12-million voters cast their votes, while 14-million did not participate in the election.

“Turnout in elections is falling. Turnout in the 2019 general election dropped to 66% from 73% in 2014. Turnout in the 2021 local government elections dropped to 46% from 55% in 2016,” Mnguni said.

The Rivonia Circle was concerned about voter apathy, because “if the turnout keeps dropping, SA is”going to have a credibility crisis .

The poll showed that 74% of voters believed the country was moving in the wrong direction

— with Indians accounting for 88%, followed by whites at 79%, coloureds at 74% and blacks at 73%.

However, 21% of those polled felt the country was on the right

trajectory, with coloureds leading the pack at 23%, followed by blacks at 22%, whites 16% and Indians 12%.

With the country’s joblessness rate at 33.9% in the second quarter, 39% of voters felt unemployment was among the most important issues facing the country, followed by crime at 10%, while 4% identified load-shedding and 4% the cost of living.

Mnguni said there were a number of popular assertions made by the SA electorate, which included that the ANC remains a dominant force in SA politics; that voters are swayed by social grants, food parcels and historical loyalty to vote ANC and not the opposition; and that people worry only about “bread and butter issues”, not corruption.

While the ANC’s electoral support dipped below 50% during the municipal elections a year ago, opposition political parties are failing to attract abstaining voters and are not growing the voter base. The survey found that the DA would garner 18% of the vote if elections were held today, the EFF 15%, the IFP 5% and Freedom Front Plus 1%. Thirteen percent of polled registered voters said they did not know which political party they would vote for.

“Voters remain politically interested, they are just not being engaged in the manner and over the issues they prefer,” he said. “What we have heard [from those polled] is that existing political parties are not listening to voters ... eligible voters are disillusioned with current political leaders and political parties who respondents believe are mostly unethical, dishonest and do not deliver on promises made.”

THE SURVEY FOUND THAT THE DA WOULD GARNER 18% OF THE VOTE IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, THE EFF 15% AND THE IFP 5%