SA running out of time to fix its energy crisis
SA is close to a tipping point in its capacity to deal with the risks facing the energy sector.
Speaking at the launch of the SA National Energy Association’s (Sanea) 2022 Energy Risk Report on Wednesday, Wendy Poulton, the association’s secretary-general, said changes in the policy space and the implementation of reforms that were needed to put SA on the path towards energy security were still not sufficient and were not happening fast enough.
According to Poulton, one of the fastest emerging risks is the shortcomings of the existing power grid and the capacity constraints this poses for connecting new renewable energy to the grid.
“The sheer scale of new infrastructure that will be required for taking advantage of new technologies but also to replace existing infrastructure is not being considered in an integrated manner and therefore not adequately resourced,” Poulton said.
STRENGTHENING THE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM WILL REQUIRE R130BN TO BUILD 100 NEW SUBSTATIONS AND 8,400KM OF TRANSMISSION LINES
SA was now adding about 1GW of renewable energy a year, but this accounts for only 10% of the roughly 10GW of renewables the country should be building per year to meet future demand, Poulton said.
This was not only to tackle the growing gap in supply as Eskom starts decommissioning old coal-fired power stations, but also to provide renewable energy that can power a new green hydrogen sector.
This has implications for associated grid infrastructure.
Sanea, the SA member committee of the World Energy Council, says in the report that while the focus on electricity security is mostly on the supply side, there are equally urgent concerns about the stability of the bulk transmission network.
The report represents the views of a group of energy experts and business leaders in the energy sector,
ROOT CAUSES
With SA’s energy sector operating in crisis mode for much of the past 10 years, remedies being implemented often fail to tackle the root causes of the problems, leading to slow implementation and a lack of sustainable improvement, the report says.
According to Eskom’s own projections, expanding and strengthening the transmission system will require R130bn to build 100 new substations and 8,400km of transmission lines by 2030, but there is no clear plan in place for how this will be funded.
Eskom is planning for 30GW of new generation capacity, mainly from renewable energy sources in areas with limited network infrastructure. The capacity to connect additional
renewable energy plants in the Northern Cape, where some of SA’s best land, solar and wind resources are, is exhausted.
“The [deployment] of these technologies must move to areas where [renewable generation] capacity is available, even if there is some drop in efficiency,” the report says.
TALL ORDER
It refers to Eskom’s transmission development plan, which targets expanding transmission infrastructure by about 8,400km of extra-high-voltage lines and 119 transformers over the next 10 years.
This is a tall order when compared with 2021 performance, when Eskom installed 67km of high-voltage lines.
“A massive step change in asset growth is required to keep pace with the predicted installed [energy resources] base,” the report says.
This echoes the alarm bells raised by a report published by Eskom at the end of October that shows SA’s lack of electricity supply is likely to get even worse over the next five years.
As reported previously by Business Day, in its latest power assessment, Eskom confirms “the situation will worsen as the plant performance of Eskom’s fleet continue[s] to trend downwards, power stations shut down and demand grows”.
From 2023 to 2027, Eskom says in the report, even in a lowdemand scenario and with an additional 10GW envisioned in the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019 coming online on time, the system will not be able to meet demand. In a worst-case scenario, the energy supply gap will increase 40% by 2027.