President lacks that ‘extra lung’ in politics
Most of the world’s greatest footballers came from poor backgrounds. Fending for yourself and having to elbow elements and jump hoops, help you to build natural street smarts that can be useful in later years, giving you the edge over their counterparts, says Richard Calland.
Ramaphosa lacks that famous “extra lung” that created world-conquering footballers and powerful politicians worldwide. Calland, law professor at the University of Cape Town, feels the president is facing a “sad end to his political career”.
The Institute for Global Dialogue’s Sanusha Naidu says former health minister Zweli Mkhize and ANC secretarygeneral Paul Mashatile stand to gain should Ramaphosa fall. Mkhize has put his hand up for the position of party president at the coming elective conference of the ANC, while Mashatile appears to be sweeping the floor in his quest for the deputy presidency.
However, Mashatile may have new problems should he want to stand for president. Can he take on Mkhize? He is standing on the shoulders of the KwaZulu-Natal faction in his position as a leading candidate to be the party’s number two.
Of his 1,791 votes, 521 came from KwaZulu-Natal, compared with the 287 he collected from his home base of Gauteng. He would need an extraordinary realignment within the net 14 days to be an out-and-out candidate.
He is on the Nasrec ballot only as a deputy candidate and would need 25% of the close to 4,000 conference delegates “from the floor” on election day to be a candidate.
“With under two weeks to the conference, the horse-trading will hit overdrive, a kind of a frenzy almost,” said Naidu.
“Everything is thrown up in the air, which could also mean unpredictability regarding who comes in. It has thrown everything into uncertainty not just in the ANC, but in the body politic of the country,” he said.
Enter David Mabuza, the deputy president of both the ANC and the country. He will be salivating at the chance of being the country’s number one, even if it is for a month or two. Never mind his propensity to jet off to Russia, where he once got medical treatment for a mysterious poisoning.
Mabuza, who nicknames himself “the cat”, presumably due to his ability to bounce back, is no longer the man who became the kingmaker in 2017. Then, he dumped the Jacob Zuma faction at the last moment, taking his Mpumalanga support to the Ramaphosa camp.
Mashatile was central to that operation, and the two appear to be joined at the hip. If there is to be any crossing of swords, Mabuza and Mashatile are likely to be in the same team. The ANC may also look at a figure such as Kgalema Motlanthe, a respected party veteran.
He was head of the country for seven months but never ANC president. He may be the go-to guy in the plane crash and may be the man to pick up the black box from the rubble. With Thabo Mbeki around, Motlanthe might have the credibility and weight to limit the damage.
However, Motlanthe on Thursday said that he would not be available to return to government. “If you have flames and you put ash on top of them, you douse them. We are ash now,” Motlanthe said.
Even if he had agreed, such a recourse may be too late for the 2024 elections — where pollsters were expecting the ANC to get around 42% without facing the damage associated with “Phala-Phalagate”. “RamaExit” would probably hasten the end of the ANC, says Calland.
He expects Ramaphosa to fall soon. “He will take the easy route out rather than try to survive,” he says. “The air is thin at the top, and you need that extra lung. He does not have the appetite or stomach for a fight. That’s probably one of the reasons he has been a disappointment as president, associated with slow decision-making.”
Ramaphosa has another option, to turn around, challenge the Ngcobo panel report in court and take the fight to his opponents in the ANC. “Unlikely,” said Calland.
“Ramaphosa failed to handle political battles within the ANC, ultimately bringing him down. He lacks the political stamina to manage such a complicated and divided party as the ANC,” he says.
Ramaphosa was a wily union operator in the 1980s, says Calland. “Ramaphosa 1.0 and Ramaphosa 3.0 [in government] are two very different political characters. He got soft over the years in business. That’s Ramaphosa 2.0.”
HE DOES NOT HAVE THE APPETITE OR STOMACH FOR A FIGHT ... PROBABLY ONE OF THE REASONS HE HAS BEEN A DISAPPOINTMENT