Ramaphosa scandal could take ANC and country down
The scandal engulfing Cyril Ramaphosa is threatening to take down more than just the president. Hanging in the balance are the fate of his party and his government’s reform agenda, which was to have kickstarted a stagnating economy.
On Wednesday, an advisory panel established by parliament found grounds for MPs to consider impeaching Ramaphosa over his alleged failure to properly report a robbery at his game farm — during which he says $580,000 hidden in a sofa was stolen — and potential violations of the constitution.
Several senior officials within the ANC have joined opposition parties in calling for him to resign, something Ramaphosa is weighing, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified as they are not authorised to speak to the media.
If he does go, there is no obvious long-term successor in the ANC, and it is unclear if whoever takes over will champion the reforms he has set in motion.
While criticised for their slow pace, the reforms have nevertheless included a crackdown on corruption, the liberalisation of the broken state power sector and a drive to get significant private investment in infrastructure for the first time. Even if Ramaphosa opts to fight for his political survival, the distractions might mean little will get done.
“Ramaphosa will either resign or he is going to be pushed off the cliff, said Prince
author”and Mashele, an political analyst. His successor is not going to move boldly when it comes to reforms and “will have to be careful to the point of doing nothing”, he said.
Before the release of the panel’s report, Ramaphosa was seen as a shoo-in to win a second term as ANC leader at the party conference due to begin on December 16, having secured the vast majority of nominations for the post.
A strong mandate and coterie of other party leaders more aligned with his own views would have allowed him to accelerate reforms. Analysts had been expecting a reshuffle of his cabinet after the party vote, with the firing of incompetent ministers and those opposed to his plans to transition the economy to green energy and open it up to more private investment.
Since taking office in 2018, Ramaphosa has effectively ended the monopoly of Eskom, the state electricity utility that has subjected South Africans to intermittent power cuts since 2008, freeing companies to build their own power plants and supply the grid.
The spectrum needed to modernise SA’s telecommunications sector was sold after more than a decade of delays. Several former leaders of state companies, politicians and party officials have been charged with corruption.
Those moves, however, have not alleviated some more immediate concerns. Unemployment, at 32.9%, is the thirdhighest among 82 countries tracked by Bloomberg; most state companies are struggling to repay their debts, and dysfunctional municipalities have left communities with potholed streets and without water and electricity.
Ramaphosa came to power after the ANC forced Jacob Zuma to step down after a near nineyear tenure, during which the government estimates more than R500bn was stolen from state coffers. He campaigned on an anticorruption ticket, and his success as a business person who had made several hundred million dollars raised hopes he would put in place sound economic policies.
The president won favour with South Africans tired of years of scandal and a deteriorating economy. But his party did not fully benefit from his popularity and its share of the vote fell to below 50% for the first time in last year’s municipal elections.
A recent survey by Ipsos forecast that the ANC would win just 41% of the vote in the general elections in 2024, meaning that it would be forced into a coalition to retain power. The party’s prospects may now weaken further.
“The ANC is finished,” Mashele said. “The people of SA only trusted Ramaphosa among that whole ANC lot.”
Ramaphosa does have options. He can take the panel’s findings on legal review, and opposition calls for an early election are unlikely to meet favour with the ANC, which can quash those demands with its parliamentary majority, said Lawson Naidoo, executive secretary of the Council For the Advancement of the SA Constitution.
The ANC’s national executive committee was due to meet on Thursday night, which would give Ramaphosa’s detractors an opportunity to call for his resignation.
IT LOOKS LIKE A CRISIS ... BUT I BELIEVE IT’S PART OF THE POLITICAL REGROUNDING OF SA, SAYING THE ANC MAY NOT BE THE ANSWER
Parliament is due to sit on December 6 to decide whether to adopt the advisory panel’s report. If they do, a panel of MPs will be set up to conduct another inquiry.
“I don’t know if they are going to come through for Cyril,” said Ralph Mathekga, an independent political analyst.
If Ramaphosa does go, it would be an ignominious end to a storied political career. The Soweto-born lawyer created what was once the country’s most powerful labour union and in the late 1980s led the biggest mining strike, bringing mining giant Anglo American to the negotiating table. In 1990, he held the microphone while Nelson Mandela spoke to his people in Cape Town after his release from 27 years in prison.
Still, the current crisis may not be all bad, some say. It may just hasten an era of instability of coalition governments and contested ideas — a necessary transition for a country led so far by its liberators, but now peopled largely by young men and women with little, if any, experience of apartheid who are more preoccupied with finding a job and hoping that the lights turn on when they flick a switch.
“It looks like a crisis for the country, but I believe it’s part of the political regrounding of SA, saying the ANC may not be the answer,” Mathekga said.
“I see this is as a necessary self-destruction. We are observing the ANC gradually disintegrating.”