Glencore warns of a looming copper deficit

Glencore has added its voice to the chorus of miners warning that a copper shortage is on its way, arguing that a “huge deficit” is looming for the crucial industrial metal.

CEO Gary Nagle said that while some people were assuming that the industry would lift supplies as it had in previous cycles to meet a forecast increase in demand driven by the energy transition, “this time it is going to be a bit different.”

He presented estimates showing a cumulative gap between projected demand and supply of 50-million tonnes between 2022 and 2030. That compares with current world copper demand of about 25million tonnes a year.

“There’s a huge deficit coming in copper, and as much as people write about it, the price is not yet reflecting it,” Nagle said.

Copper miners and analysts have been warning of deficits increasing from the mid-2020s, driven by rising demand for copper in wind and solar farms, high voltage cables, and electric vehicles. While most analysts say prices will rise from today’s

levels of about $8,500 a tonne, there is disagreement on how large copper shortages may be.

Nagle said that Glencore, one of the world’s top copper miners and traders, will wait to lift its own output of the metal until the world is “screaming” for it. “We want to see that deficit,” he said.

Nagle said that Glencore could lift its annual copper production more than 60% from

present levels of 1-million tonnes with expansion of its assets. The company is also eyeing a $5.6bn new-build project at El Pachon in Argentina.

/Reuters Wait and see: While Glencore forecasts a big shortage of copper, the mining group says that it will not be increasing its output of the metal until it sees the deficit.