Getting tough on immigration risks damaging UK economy
• Staggering migration numbers underscore a dichotomy: indispensable foreign labour force for growth versus anxiety over resources
The UK government spent much of this week trying to blunt the impact of new immigration numbers. As expected, the numbers are up. Net migration is now at a record high of 606,000, up from a half-million in the year to June 2022.
More striking than the numbers is the composition: only 151,000 of those arriving to the UK in 2022 were from Europe, while 925,000 were non-EU nationals. EU migrants accounted for 13% of total immigration in 2022, down from the pre-pandemic levels of 52% and 42% in 2018 and 2019, according to the UK office for national statistics.
Global Britain has arrived, though it’s not quite how Brexiteers imagined it would be.
Politically, this is awkward. The Tories promised to reduce net migration in their last election manifesto in 2019, when Britain saw net immigration of about 270,000. The party of Brexit also promised to “take back control” over Britain’s borders. Now such a steep rise in numbers compounds the impression given by the increase in small boats of migrants arriving to the UK that the government doesn’t have a good grip after all.
Of course, these are separate issues with distinctly different forces at play. The rise in small boats of migrants was an embarrassment for the government both because it showed Brexit had complicated border co-operation with Europe and because it exposed the chaos and dysfunction in Britain’s system for processing asylum claims.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has already made tackling the migrant issue one of his five pledges for the year. Deals with Rwanda, France and Albania have been struck to improve border controls and facilitate deportations of asylum seekers. And the government’s Illegal Migration Bill, criticised as “morally unacceptable” by the archbishop of Canterbury, criminalises anyone who comes without permission.
The rise in legal migration reflects very different factors. The vast majority of those Britain lets in are people the UK economy needs (like nurses), those whose short-term stay brings longer-term benefits (students) and those whom Global Britain should take pride in welcoming (Ukrainians fleeing war). The UK office for budget responsibility estimated that net migration is likely to eventually settle at about 245,000 a year. While some of the recent immigration is circumstantial (and temporary), that now seems low.
A big chunk of the increase since last year has come from the greater numbers of migrants from Hong Kong (where Britain had widened its offer of residency in the wake of China’s crackdown on democratic freedoms) and Ukraine. Another big slice (39% of non-EU migration) comes from students. That’s by design. In 2019, the government set an explicit policy to increase the international student population to 600,000 from half a million.
Nor should it be any different. Education is one of Britain’s top exports, worth an estimated £28.8bn to the UK economy. International students bring fees to cash-starved universities, which both fund teaching and subsidise domestic students. Their spending on housing, food and other services helps local communities, and those who stay to work contribute through taxes.
Beyond their economic benefits, international students enrich the country with different cultural perspectives and enhance Britain’s soft power as most return home with fond feelings towards the UK.
Tuesday’s announcement that visas would no longer be issued for most dependants of foreign graduate students was a weak attempt to be seen to be doing something, but it risks sending the wrong message to an immigrant group Britain should be welcoming.
As in most advanced countries, there is a fringe in Britain who would like to see something approaching netzero immigration. “Make no mistake,” warns an email from Reform UK, the antiimmigrant party set up by Brexiteer Nigel Farage and run by Richard Tice, “if total net immigration for 2022 is anywhere near three-quarters of a million people, it will change British politics forever”.
Most Britons take a more nuanced view of immigration. They broadly support offering refuge to Ukrainians, are grateful for immigrants filling jobs in the health service, and don’t believe deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda will change much. A report based on research by Ipsos last year showed that support for reducing immigration is at its lowest level since before the Brexit vote.
Public concern tends to focus on whether the government is exercising control rather than the overall numbers. But a spike fuels fears about competition for hospital beds, school places and housing.
POLITICALLY, THIS IS AWKWARD. THE TORIES PROMISED TO REDUCE NET MIGRATION IN THEIR LAST ELECTION MANIFESTO
THERE IS A FRINGE IN BRITAIN WHO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOMETHING APPROACHING NET-ZERO IMMIGRATION
That is the paradox of Britain’s immigration debate. Britain cannot keep public services working without foreign labour (indeed economic growth depends on it) even as people worry that immigrants will increase demand for already threadbare supply. Yes, higher birth rates in the country would be nice, but try telling people to have babies when there is a lack of affordable childcare and housing.
The government wants to demonstrate control over borders, while reaping the benefits of high levels of immigration, which has led to muddled messaging.
The opposition Labour Party is no better on the issue. Keir Starmer spent the entirety of his face-off with Rishi Sunak on Wednesday lambasting the prime minister over immigration. Both know that having a Goldilocks debate over the right level of immigration only makes sense if Britain has alternatives to importing more workers.