Jets Kyiv wants are not likely to arrive soon
• Countries pledging support will have to weigh the costs before making final decision
Ukraine faces a long wait before it can deploy F-16s against Russia, as US and European allies begin to thrash out who might be able to supply the fighter jets.
The countries pledging support for Ukraine are prioritising pilot training and will have to weigh the costs and any possible security gaps before deciding whether to actually send the aircraft.
Four nations have so far committed to a coalition to help train the Ukrainian pilots — the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium. But only Denmark and the Netherlands may end up actually sending the jets to help counter Russia’s invasion.
The UK has no F-16s. Belgium has signalled that many of its 53 planes are reaching the end of their lifespans, while any others would be needed for national and international missions.
Defence ministers from the US, Europe and other Ukraine supporters were likely to discuss F-16 training at a virtual meeting later on Thursday.
“In the near future, consideration can be given to the possible delivery of F-16s to Ukraine,” a spokesperson for the Dutch defence ministry said, adding it was “not an immediate issue”. The priority is hammering out details of the training plan, which should be finalised in the coming weeks, she added.
Whether Denmark will send Ukraine its jets is still an open question, according to a spokesperson for the Danish defence ministry. The question of whether the country could afford or spare the planes would need to be discussed, he added.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at the weekend the US would work with allies in the coming months to determine when the planes will be delivered, and who will do so. The likeliest scenario for now is that the US will not send F-16s to Ukraine but instead rely on other countries to supply them.
US President Joe Biden last week dropped his reluctance to F-16s doing combat in Ukraine after months of pressure from Kyiv and allied governments, saying the US will support efforts to train Ukrainian pilots to use the fighter jet. While the training will take place in Europe, it needs US permission because the jet is US-made. No country has formally committed to supplying F-16s to Ukraine.
The move comes after allied officials have sought for months to downplay the need for Ukraine to receive F-16s, instead highlighting the urgent requirement for ammunition and air defence equipment in beating back Russian forces.
While it could take many months before pilots are trained let alone before jets are transferred — the push to start training fits into a broader effort to help Ukraine’s military withstand future attacks by Russia even after the war ends.
Once the pilot training plan is finalised and if they can get a further US sign-off for transfers, the allies will have to determine whether they can part with the costly machines as donations to Ukraine.
PRICE TAG
Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s policy chief, told a House of Representatives committee in February that the 50-80 fighter jets the US deems Ukraine would need to replace its existing air force, could cost as much as $11bn if they were brand new.
Donating nations will also need to ensure Ukraine can maintain the aircraft once it receives them. The jets require intense care, including an indepth inspection roughly every 300 hours, putting an aircraft out of commission for at least 35 days, according to Belgium’s military airbase Kleine-Brogel.
One big factor in any decision will be tied to incoming F-35 orders designed to replace F16s, as allies seek to avoid any gap in their air forces. The Netherlands is further along in its F-35 programme compared to a country such as Belgium, which will only receive its first two F-35s in 2023 but will be first stationed in the US for training. Denmark’s first F-35s arrive this year.
TRAINING COALITION
Norway is also further along in transitioning to F-35s, with the new fleet officially taking over from F-16s in 2022. Asked whether Norway would consider sending F-16s, defence minister Bjorn Arild Gram said his government is “constantly considering new donations” to Ukraine, but declined to comment on future contributions.
Dutch and Danish ministers said in Brussels earlier this week they expect other countries to soon join the coalition to train pilots. Portugal is open to helping with pilot training, but providing F-16s is not on the table as it has only a limited number.
Turkey and Greece have more than 400 F-16s between them, but they are unlikely to send Ukraine the fighters. Greece needs the planes given its constant rivalry with Turkey, while the latter relies on the jets to fight separatist Kurdish militants at home and beyond its borders in Syria and Iraq.
Moreover, Turkey is playing a self-appointed mediator role in the conflict between the warring parties and would not even consider deploying its warplanes in Ukraine and take the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia, according to two senior Turkish officials familiar with the matter.