Draft energy plan at odds with reality
After the expiration of the deadline for submitting written comments on the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2023 last week, the department of mineral resources & energy now assumes the role of advancing the consultation process on the plan.
However, many of the organisations that submitted responses to the plan believe it is so shoddy that it is almost impossible to provide sensible and constructive comment on the proposed changes. They have called on the department to restart the process and to revise the modelling, using “updated data and correct assumptions” in formulating a new draft plan for a fresh round of public input.
In its submission to the department, Meridian Economics called the draft IRP 2023 an “opaque document which does not achieve its stated purpose and objectives of ensuring a secure, affordable and clean power system”. This view was echoed by shareholder activist group Just Share, which said the plan did not comply with a single one of the aims of an IRP. An IRP should, at the very least, ensure security of electricity supply, provide a plan that promotes affordable electricity and not hinder the country’s ability to achieve its climate commitments.
Instead, as both these organisations and others pointed out, the draft plan uses irrationally inflated prices for renewable energy in its modelling. As a result the proposed energy mix falls short, including only about 50% of the required investment in renewable energy generation that SA should pursue to provide consumers with an electricity mix that is cost effective.
Also, the IRP’s proposed plan for new generation capacity to be added by 2030 would mean load-shedding will continue being a feature at least until 2028.
The General Industries Workers Union of SA rejected the draft IRP 2023, saying it would have a “disastrous” effect on workingclass communities as it failed to address issues such as energy security, affordability and the urgent need for decarbonisation.
The Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse said the plan was so inadequate it “made a mockery of the public engagement process”.
The SA Photovoltaic Industry Association (Sapvia) called on the department to provide transparency in modelling assumptions and to use updated technology costs (for all types of electricity generation) “to reflect real-world data”.
Sapvia CEO Rethabile Melamu said what was predicted in the IRP 2019 was drastically different from how the market for renewables had evolved on the ground, in particular the uptake of solar by businesses and households.
As it stands the draft IRP 2023 provides for about 900MW of distributed generation (small-scale rooftop solar for homes and businesses) to be added per year between 2024 and 2030. However, data shows that about 2,600MW of private solar systems were installed in 2023 alone.
The shortcomings and sometimes myopic planning by the government will affect SA’s ability to implement other socioeconomic development goals, such as the ambition to localise the renewable energy value chain and to see communities benefit from and participate in renewable energy projects in their areas.