Rand jumps after latest opinion poll
The rand was the best-performer among emerging-market currencies after the latest poll by global market researcher Ipsos showed support for the ANC waning further, just weeks before the general elections.
The Ipsos poll, released on Friday, showed ANC support falling to 40.2% from 40.5% previously. The biggest loser in the survey, which polled more than 2,500 South Africans from all demographics, was the EFF, which Ipsos polled at 11.5%, from 19.6% in February.
EFF support appears to be moving, in the main, to former president Jacob Zuma’s MK, which recently burst onto the scene and already has 11.5% support among those polled.
The official opposition, the DA, moved up from 20.5% to 21.9%.
At 5.15pm, the rand had gained 1.1% to R18.8163/$, 1.51% to R20.1074/€ and 1.38% to R23.4471/£.
The rand received a further boost on Friday when Eskom said, after 30 days without load-shedding, that rolling blackouts this winter would likely be far less pervasive than they were in the winter of 2023.
The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0674 after the latest reading on US inflation came in higher than expected. Personal consumption inflation, a key data point the Federal Reserve considers when deciding on interest rates, shows year-on-year prices rose 2.8% in March, above expectations of 2.7%.
JSE ADVANCE
The news is not good for interest rate doves, as the expectation for lower rates was pushed back even further on the data, with some analysts now predicting that the Fed may only cut rates towards the end of the year.
At the beginning of 2024 markets were expecting US rates cuts this year would amount to 150 basis points (bps), with many now believing 50bps to 75bps is more likely. The Fed has raised rates by a combined 525bps since 2022, when inflation soared as the world emerged from the effects of the pandemic.
Not to be outdone by the rand, the JSE recorded its biggest gain in more than three weeks, with the all share index up 1.4% to 75,370 points while the top 40 added 1.34%.
Anglo American added another 1.62% to R620.90, after leaping almost 19% on Thursday when Australian mining giant BHP announced an interest in taking over Anglo.
While the offer was rebuffed on Friday by the Anglo board, analysts believe it could start a bidding war for all or perhaps just some of Anglo’s assets. The miner has extensive copper interests, which are attractive to markets as the metal plays a big part in the global move to cleaner energy provision.