Brexit could cost the UK 950 000 jobs by 2020

LEAVING the EU might cost the UK £100 billion in lost economic output and 950 000 jobs by 2020, the Confederation of British Industry said as it stepped up its campaign against a so-called Brexit.

A vote to leave the bloc in the referendum Prime Minister David Cameron has called for June 23 “would cause a serious shock to the UK economy”, Britain’s main business lobby group said, citing a study it commissioned from Pricewaterhouse-Coopers.

“Leaving the EU would be a real blow for living standards, jobs and growth. The savings from reduced EU budget contributions and regulation are greatly outweighed by the negative impact on trade and investment,” CBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn said.

According to the study, UK GDP might be 5 percent lower than it would otherwise be by 2020 in the case of withdrawal, though it might only be 3 percent lower if a freetrade deal is rapidly reached with the rump EU. Growth might be as low as zero in 2017/2018, the CBI said.

“The economy would slowly recover over time, but never quite tracks back to where it would have been. Leaving the EU would mean a smaller economy in 2030,” Fairbairn said.

The CBI said last week it will campaign to keep the UK inside the EU after a survey found four-fifths of its members believe this would be best for their businesses.

Brexit campaigners argue Britain would be better off outside the bloc because Europe is a shrinking market for UK exports and the government would be able to conclude its own trade deals with fast-growing economies around the world.