Factions in battle for soul of the ANC

High-level meeting over Zuma’s future

WHAT started as an ordinary ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting on Saturday dragged on and descended into a battle for the soul of the party. Late last night, members were still at loggerheads about the future of President Jacob Zuma.

He is facing increased pressure, not only from opposition parties, but also ANC veterans, civil society and many of his cabinet ministers.

It emerged at the high-level meeting in Irene, Pretoria yesterday that about twothirds of Zuma’s cabinet members want him out, while he still enjoys the support of most ANC branches and at least five of the nine provinces.

The Eastern Cape and Gauteng provinces are believed to be in support of the faction that wants Zuma out.

On Saturday, a motion of no confidence was sneaked into the agenda of the meeting. Tourism Minister and head of the ANC’s disciplinary committee Derek Hanekom moved for a motion of no confidence in Zuma.

This was while most of Zuma’s supporters were attending the wedding of Ekurhuleni mayor Mzwandile Masina in Cape Town. They included Home Affairs Minister Malusi Gigaba and Sports and Recreation Minister Fikile Mbalula, who also stopped off in Bloemfontein for the SA Sports Awards before jetting off to Pretoria to defend the president.

Hanekom’s move was supported by Health Minister Dr Aaron Motsoaledi.

By late on Sunday night, 20 NEC members had spoken against the motion of no confidence and 20 were in support.

Zuma’s opponents want him removed over issues, which include the State of Capture report by then public protector Thuli Madonsela. Zuma’s backers managed to hold his detractors at bay and the NEC went on until late.

It seemed unlikely a decision on his future would be reached.

Zuma, who is believed to have remained silent and unmoved during the representations throughout yesterday, was expected to address the close of the meeting after he had attended to official state business.

If Zuma were to lose the battle, he could be removed as president of the country. This could result in Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa being installed as president with immediate effect.

It would then be up to Ramaphosa to allow the establishment of an inquiry to delve further into then-public protector Thuli Madonsela’s State of Capture report. This inquiry could possibly implicate Zuma’s son, Duduzane, and the Gupta family – and further weaken Zuma’s position.

But the battle for the leadership of the ANC would not yet have been won, as Zuma still enjoys the support of the branches, which are due to meet on the succession debate at the party’s elective conference in December next year.

While the NEC can remove Zuma as president of the country, it is unable to recall him as president of the party.

In 2008, when Thabo Mbeki was recalled as president of the country, he had already lost the leadership of the party at the Polokwane conference the year before.

A successful bid to remove Zuma as the country’s president could result in instability – something the country can ill-afford as ratings agencies make their pronouncements this week.

Zuma’s backers have called the bid to remove him a “coup”. It’s believed the Zuma camp supports Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma as his successor, while those who want him out – including the party’s secretary-general, Gwede Mantashe and Health Minister Motsoaledi, along with two-thirds of the cabinet – want Ramaphosa to take over the leadership of the party and thus, the country.

This leaves the NEC at an impasse: forge ahead and remove the president of the country, but lose the support of the branches and fail to control the ANC after the 2017 elective conference, or drop the matter and have Zuma weakened to lick his wounds but win the long-term war for control of the party.