Scramble for clout in Syria
Proxy players position themselves to shape outcome of war
AS ISLAMIC State (IS) loses an increasing amount of territory in southern Syria, the country’s civil war appears to be reaching a military conclusion after six bloody years. But the future of the country will be largely influenced by regional and international proxy players.
In the past two weeks, Syrian rebels have seized large areas from IS in southern Syria as the jihadist group prepares to defend its Raqqa stronghold in the north from a US-backed assault, rebel commanders say.
As the conflict appears to be tailing off, analysts are increasingly considering where the country stands diplomatically and militarily, and which countries will influence the eventual outcome, and why.
“Israel senses its lack of influence over arrangements currently under way in Moscow, Tehran, Ankara, Astana, and Geneva,” said Israeli analysts Zvi Magen and Udi Dekel.
However, it appears the Jewish state will be taking a more active role as the balance of power changes to its detriment.
The question now was to what extent Israel could remain determined to maintain its red lines and prevent the build-up of Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies in Syria, and the deployment of these forces near the border in the Golan Heights, without destabilising its special relations with Moscow and without causing a wider escalation in the northern arena, Magen and Dekel said.
The turning point in the war began in September 2015, when Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to intervene militarily in Syria to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
“The battlefield successes by the proAssad coalition, headed by Russia… peaked with the fall of the northern city of Aleppo in December 2016,” the two analysts stated.
“Since Donald Trump took office, the US has worked hard to defeat IS.” On the diplomatic level since its military intervention, Russia has become the senior actor in the Syrian arena.
“Trump’s entrance into the White House has created expectations for co-operation between Russia and the US, but signs of a change in US Middle East policy are emerging; such a change would be motivated by a desire to hold back Iranian influence and rebuild relations with the Sunni Arab states.
“Therefore, despite its achievements in Syria and in its improved status in the region, it seems that Moscow will above all want to reach understandings with Washington and increase co-ordination with it to preserve the Alawite regime in Syria,” said Magen and Dekel.