Murray’s stats compare with Moreira

YOU have no doubt heard of the jockey they call ‘The Magic Man’. Now, perhaps, the world of racing has witnessed the arrival of ‘The Young Wizard’.

At the age of just 20, South African Callan Murray (pictured) this week made the biggest leap in rankings points in the entire evolution of TRC Global Rankings – more than any fellow jockey, any trainer, any owner or any sire.

The lofty comparison with Joao Moreira – ranked third in our latest classifications – is not invoked stylistically or in any other way superficially but strictly numerically.

For, as we will see shortly, Murray is one of the riders who profiles like Moreira by our numbers.

(With Murray headed for a three-month stint in Hong Kong the two will meet head-on.)

Murray goes up 31 rankings points and 160 places to 109 for his G1 treble on Champions Day at Turffontein (May 6).

Deo Juvente

He landed the Premier’s Champions Challenge (2 000m) on Deo Juvente, the South African Nursery (1 200m) on Mustaaqeem, and the Computaform Sprint (1 000m) on Rafeef. Two of the three came for trainer Mike De Kock and in the colours of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, while Deo Juvente is trained by Geoff Woodruff and owned by the increasingly influential Mayfair Speculators.

Of course, a rider does not come without his book of rides. And a small sample can always just be a fluke.

So, even if you are not convinced by Murray’s languid, relaxed, uber-cool ride on Deo Juvente, for instance, precedent suggests that winning three Group 1 races is a notable achievement, particularly in one so young.

The TRC Global Rankings goes back to 2014 and is equally forward- and backward-looking.

It measures past accomplishment – like all world rankings systems try to do – but it is unique in doing so predictively.

Statistics

In the context of statistics, this means that the maths we use tries to strip out randomness from every competitor’s results, smoothing their change in rankings points by learning what each win or loss really means.

Thoroughbredracing.com sometimes get asked why not simply aggregate Group and Graded wins to produce the classifications?

Less sophisticated rankings could not capture the brilliance of Moreira, or trainers like John Moore, if they merely used aggregation.

And the system is betting heavily on South African Murray becoming a global star in the next few years.

Meanwhile, TABNews confirm that Murray had taken the advice of trainer Mike de Kock before deciding to ride in Hong Kong for two months.

It all happened pretty quickly for 20-year-old Murray, who was asked if he wanted to go only last Wednesday.

“By Thursday it was all organised,” said Murray, who will have his first ride on Sunday.

However, Murray has been riding with increased success for the powerful De Kock yard and was not going to jeopardise this long term career opportunity for a short stint abroad.

“I let Mr De Kock make the decision. I don’t think I would have gone without his blessing but he agreed, and luckily I now have the best of both worlds.

“Fortunately, many of his horses have gone for a rest so he does not have that many in Durban for the season.

Heavenly Blue

“However, we did agree I would come back to ride Heavenly Blue in the Daily News 2000 in June and in the Vodacom Durban July.”

De Kock also confirmed on his website (www.mikedekockracing.com) intentions to run Heavenly Blue in the 2017 Vodacom Durban July, after his second in the SA Derby: “Being by speed sire Snitzel I had a concern that Heavenly Blue wouldn’t quite see out the tough 2450m of the Derby and that is what happened. He was found wanting over the last 200m.

“He ran a big race nonetheless and the 2200m at Greyville is vastly different to the Derby distance at Turffontein.

“He will have a solid chance of reversing form with Al Sahem.’’