Nuclear deal fallout likely to be deciding factor in Iran elections

THE 2015 Iran nuclear deal has created great divisions in Tehran, with disappointment over the pact threatening to unseat the president.

Tomorrow Iranian voters will decide whether to give a second four-year term to incumbent Hassan Rouhani, whose signature achievement was supposed to put him on a glide path to re-election.

Instead, the nuclear agreement’s failure to lift the economy is at the heart of a surprisingly strong challenge from Ebrahim Raisi, a conservative cleric backed by the Revolutionary Guard Corps and the paramilitary Basij, security forces that wield huge political and economic clout. Subtle hints dropped by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggest that he, too, favours Raisi.

Raisi, 56, considered a potential successor to Khamenei, has gained ground by accusing Rouhani of failing to capitalise on the deal and allowing poverty and unemployment to rise in a country awash in oil deals since nuclear-related sanctions were lifted.

He has pledged to triple government subsidies, currently $12 (R162) a month for the poorest Iranians.

“Iranians are still hurting economically, especially from unemployment, and this has turned out to be a major weakness of Rouhani’s in this election,” said Farzan Sabet, a nuclear security fellow and Iran analyst at Stanford University in the US.

“Raisi has sought to exploit this weakness through a populist message.”

All four remaining candidates in the race have said they would uphold the nuclear deal. Rouhani has gone further, vowing to seek the end of all remaining sanctions imposed for human rights abuses, ballistic missile tests and support for terrorism. – Washington Post