Bird flu takes its toll on drought-hit Cape
Poultry and ostrich consumers set to feel the pinch this Christmas
ALTHOUGH avian flu has affected the poultry industry countrywide, the Western Cape has been the hardest hit, said Dawie Maree, the head of marketing and information for agriculture at First National Bank Business.
Maree said South Africa had, in recent months, been affected by an outbreak of a strain of avian influenza, HPAI H5N8, that had not only negatively impacted the already hard-hit poultry and ostrich producers, but also consumers’ pockets. He said the Western Cape, which accounts for about 22% of the poultry numbers in South Africa, was likely to bear the brunt of the outbreak, because it was suffering from a shortage of water. Maree said the ostrich industry would also be affected, predominantly in Mpumalanga, Gauteng and the Western Cape. However, the Western Cape would be most affected because of the drought.
“Up to September, two million layers were culled. This will have a negative effect on the replacement layers for the future. Industry experts indicated that there will at least be a 55-day lag in producing new layers, which means that the replacement layers will only be available by Christmas,” said Maree.
He said the confectionery industry would also be affected.
However, the saving grace for the major bakeries was that they would most probably have contracts that would be fulfilled without them having to buy from supermarkets. However, the rise in the price of eggs could be detrimental for small bakeries. “Consumers might struggle to get products that are impacted, such as eggs and fresh chicken. In the Western Cape, for instance, there are supermarkets that literally have empty shelves due to the strain. The price of eggs is increasing, which is not good news for cash-strapped consumers, as eggs are an important protein source.”
He added, however, that things could only get better in future, because the industry had gone through number of challenges recently.
In the latest South African Revenue Service import data update, total poultry imports jumped to 51 889 tons in September 2017, an increase of 13% month-onmonth and 6% higher relative to the same month last year.
Cumulative poultry imports for the nine months of this year reached 415 921 tons, which was 2% lower relative to the same period last year.
“Producers who’ve managed to stay in business through all of these challenges may have a better future ahead. Feed costs have come down, with the exception of imports related to avian influenza (AI). As soon as the AI issue has been sorted, they will be able to produce again.”
Karabo Takadi, an agricultural economist at AgriBusiness, Absa’s retail and business bank, said: “On a positive (note), the virus has been reduced over the past few weeks and … should be finally contained and not spread further. Farmers are encouraged to review their bio-security measures and ensure their observation.”