ANC given one last chance
Ramaphosa must seek unity for SA; should populists dare oust him, voters will back him
MANY voters in the election gave the ANC one last chance, voting essentially for Cyril Ramaphosa the individual, in the hope that he will work a miracle and clean-up the ANC and government, improve public services and bring inclusive development to millions who have been left behind.
Unless the ANC leadership takes this message to heart, shows humility, introspection and takes their members and citizens seriously, the party will lose power in the next elections. Sadly, it appears that at the rendezvous of victory, many ANC leaders remain complacent, arrogant and dismissive.
After 25 years in power, similar coherent independence movements – such as the Indian Congress Party – who have failed in government, traditionally lose power. They thereafter often disintegrate, struggle to get back into power and only secure power through coalitions.
In some cases, such movements, such as Zimbabwe’s Zanu-PF, rigged polls to remain in power.
Ramaphosa gave the ANC an electoral bounce which turned possible national defeat into electoral victory. The arrival of Ramaphosa has given the ANC an extra 5-year lifeline. His leadership has given the ANC up to a 10% extra vote nationally. Without him, the party was likely to have dropped below 50% nationally.
Many middle-class black voters, appalled by the corruption under former leader Jacob Zuma, have now temporarily returned to the ANC of Ramaphosa. This meant parties with black middle-class support such as Cope, Agang and the UDM, have all but lost their deposits. Many former black middle-class ANC supporters who had joined a new, blackened DA after the “wasted years” of the ANC under Zuma, temporarily returned because of the appeal of Ramaphosa.
Large numbers of former supporters have given up hope on the ANC entirely, and did not vote. Young people – born after 1994 and unemployed, without opportunities and who have not experienced the ANC as a “glorious” liberation movement, only know the ANC as a party overseeing poor public services, corruption and indifferent leaders – stayed away.
The failure of the ANC in government has led to the rise of left populism which, in turn, has led to the rise of white right populism.
Given five borrowed years, unless the ANC delivers, the country will follow a Zimbabwe-like slide into economic freefall – more joblessness, low growth and infrastructure decline; more widespread collapse of the state, more corruption and more crime.
If the ANC does not deliver over the next 5 years, it is very likely that the EFF will be the next government.
New, smaller black populist parties, such as Black First Land First (BLF), African Transformation Movement (ATM) and African Content Movement (ACM), have done badly in the polls.
Equally, new black Left parties, such as the Socialist Revolutionary Workers Party, the offshoot of the National Union of Metalworkers Union (Numsa), and older liberation movements such as the PAC and the Black Consciousness-style parties have all been decimated. They have been culled because the EFF has now positioned itself as the pre-eminent left socialist party, making them redundant. This means that even if, for example, the SACP, at some point decides to go on its own, it would be unlikely to gain popular appeal among the black working-class and poor.
The DA has now blackened under Mmusi Maimane. This has meant that white conservatives, fearful of a black DA, and also apprehension of a rise in black populism, led by the EFF, BLF and black populist parties, have sought refuge in the Freedom Front Plus, the white conservative populist party.
For the DA to become the future government, it must attract black voters. Losing white conservatives to the FF+ would not be an issue if the party concomitantly grew black voters to replace the whites leaving. It becomes problem if the growth of black voters is slower than white voters leaving the DA, which appears to be the case.
The FF+ has campaigned on the slogan “slaan terug” (fight back) – interpreted as fight back against black left populism.
The problem for Ramaphosa is that at least half the ANC – the left populist Zuma wing – will push it towards left populism, into the EFF’s space. There will be a temptation to trot a populist path to secure ANC “unity”, and also to neutralise the rising EFF.
A populist agenda will crash the economy, polarise the country and push away human, finance and social capital that could rebuild the country.
Ramaphosa must aim for “unity” of South Africa, rather than “unity” of the ANC. Seeking the “unity” of the ANC will destroy the country, and the ANC itself in the long-term.
Ramaphosa must decisively confront the Zuma-populists. If they try to oust him, Ramaphosa, who has now secured a governing mandate, can appeal directly to the voters – who will support him.
The EFF has now positioned itself as the pre-eminent left socialist party