Factions, corruption may destroy ANC

THE ANC has dominated South Africa’s politics since 1994. Having just won the general election, it appears set to continue its dominance until the next one in 2024.

The ANC’s electoral fortunes have steadily declined in the last three national elections; 2009 (65%), 2014 (62%) and 2019 (57.50%). Does this suggest the party will join the global list of dominant parties that lose power and eventually disintegrate?

Globally, dominant parties experience moments of failure. Sometimes they completely disappear from the political scene.

Scholars have ascribed declines to four broad reasons: opposition co-ordination; institutional or electoral reforms; high level of corruption and gross abuse of office; and factional conflict within the dominant party.

The ANC should be worried about high levels of corruption and conflicts within the party.

Reasons for failure

A fragmented opposition: Studies have established that this contributes to the prolonged reign of dominant parties. That’s because they are less likely to be well co-ordinated to win the vote.

Institutions: There is evidence from several studies that institutions play a significant role in perpetuating single-party dominance. This may relate to the nature of the electoral system and the type of political system in place. This implies that some form of structural reforms might be required to dislodge a dominant party whose hegemony relies on the existing system.

Disenchantment: growing disenchantment with the governing party over recurring high levels of corruption represents another reason for the loss of the hegemony.

The argument is that when a party stays in power for a long time without facing a credible threat of defeat, it becomes complacent and susceptible to corruption and abuse of office. Factionalism: studies confirm that internal dissent and disorder were the major reasons for the disintegration of dominant parties in the post-war era across different regions of the world. How the ANC fares

The first two indicators – fragmented opposition and institutions – favour the perpetuation of the ANC’s dominance. The last two – disenchantment and factionalism – threaten it.

The opposition DA and the EFF remain the two front-running opposition parties. But, there are still doubts about their capacity to dislodge the ANC in the near future given their ideological differences.

Second, the ANC has used its majority in Parliament to create (or influence) laws that limit the chances of the opposition growing.

But corruption and factionalism are the two factors that threaten the ANC’s dominance and could eventually kill it.

Last, if President Cyril Ramaphosa is able to keep his electoral promises the ANC would still remain the party to beat in the 2024 elections.

This includes rooting out corruption, prosecuting culprits, reforming the economy to improve access, appropriating and redistributing land without hurting the economy and creating jobs. Isike receives funding from the National Research Foundation. He is affiliated with the International Political Science Association, where he is a Vice-President, and is a current Council member of the South African Association of Political Studies. This article first appeared in The Conversation