Brexit hangs in the balance
A DEAL to smooth Britain’s departure from the EU hung in the balance yesterday after diplomats indicated the bloc wanted more concessions from Prime Minister Boris Johnson and said a full agreement was unlikely this week.
Johnson says he wants to strike an exit deal at an EU summit on Thursday and Friday to allow an orderly departure on October 31. But if an agreement is not possible, he will lead the UK out of the club it joined in 1973 without a deal.
EU politician Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said a deal was possible. But EU diplomats were pessimistic about the chances of Johnson’s hybrid customs proposal for the Irish border riddle. “We are not very optimistic,” an EU diplomat said.
After more than three years of Brexit crisis and tortuous negotiations that have claimed the scalps of two British prime ministers, Johnson will have to ratify any last-minute deal in parliament, which will sit on Saturday for the first time since the 1982 Falklands War.
As EU ministers met in Luxembourg ahead of the leaders’ summit, Johnson’s planned legislative agenda was read out by Queen Elizabeth at the state opening of parliament.
To get it done, Johnson must master the complexities of the Irish border before getting the approval of Europe’s biggest powers and then sell any deal to the parliament, in which he has no majority and which he suspended unlawfully last month.
The main sticking point from the EU side is customs. The EU is worried it would be impossible to ensure goods entering Northern Ireland do not end up in the EU and is concerned about the complexity of a system for charging tariffs on goods moved between Britain and Northern Ireland.
EU diplomats now say the best chance of a deal would be to keep Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs union. That would be a step too far for Johnson’s Northern Irish allies, the Democratic Unionist Party, and many Brexit supporters in his party.
If he fails to strike a deal with the EU, a law passed by his opponents obliges him to seek a delay – the scenario that EU diplomats think is most likely. Extension options range from as short as an extra month to half a year or longer.