Macadamia crop likely to be 3% lower this year
THIS YEAR’S global macadamia crop was likely to be 3 percent lower compared with last year’s, despite the rapid increase in orchard plantings over the past few years.
The Green & Gold Macadamias 2020 Interim Market Report released this week said the fall in supply was largely the result of lower output in the two leading macadamia countries of origin: South Africa and Australia.
“Due to unfavourable weather conditions, Australia predicted a lower output. However, the severity of the downward revision of South Africa’s forecast was not anticipated. Gratefully, this is somewhat offset by noteworthy crop output increase in Kenya,” stated the report. The SA Macadamia Association has attributed the decline to climate, mature orchards, insect damage and disease.
Sixty percent of the country’s crop was likely to be shipped to China this year. Kernel output would be about half of what it was in 2019.
The report stated that China’s official 22 percent (in-shell) growth estimate also appeared impressive.
“However, it is widely accepted that due to the country’s large number of smallholder growers (and the challenge this presents in accurately capturing data), these figures are over-reported. Unofficial, and probably more accurate, forecasts for China’s production are around 20 000 megatons in-shell, down 33 percent on the official 30 000 number. China is said to consume most of its domestic crop and was also a significant net importer of macadamias,” the report said.
Lower crop output from Australia and South Africa meant that the market might experience a shortage of premium-size products.
Generally, prices were stable and forward contracts for macadamias remained at the levels of previous years. Retail sales of snack products and home-baking packages were reported to be buoyant as consumers ate healthy, luxury products at home during this time.
“Macro trends, like vegan and plant-based eating, together with macadamia health benefits being better understood, continues to underpin growing demand for the product. But, as the economic aftermath of the pandemic unfolds, longer-term consumer spending and habits remains to be seen,” the report said.
The report stated that changes in demand had been observed in the food service, travel and convenience sectors.
The season was said to have started strongly, with the world’s largest retailers moving to secure their projected 2020 requirements. However, sellers to the travel sector and manufacturers of impulse lines have been hard hit.
The National Agricultural Marketing Council’s chief economist, Dr Sifiso Ntombela, said although the macadamia industry was relatively new in South Africa, it was showing good growth, particularly in the Eastern Cape, Northern KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Mpumalanga.