Thousands flee Ethiopia

Outsiders barred as refugees flow across border into Sudan; fears of civil war amid protests

ETHIOPIAN refugees were flowing into Sudan yesterday as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal troops battled well-armed local forces in Tigray and protests against the northern region’s leaders were planned elsewhere.

With outsiders barred and communications down, it was unclear how Abiy’s week-long offensive against regional rulers the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was progressing.

But security sources and state media have spoken of hundreds of deaths in the mountainous state of more than 5 million people, where federal warplanes have been pounding arms and fuel depots as soldiers fight on the ground.

Both sides have claimed successes, including federal troops taking an airport and Tigrayans alleging they downed a jet, but verification has not been possible.

The government has confirmed, however, that the TPLF controls a compound of the powerful Northern Command military in Tigray’s capital Mekelle. Given deep antipathy between the Tigrayans and Abiy, who comes from the largest Oromo ethnic group, plus ethnic frictions all around Ethiopia, there are fears of civil war and knock-ons around the Horn of Africa region.

Ethiopia reached a peace agreement with neighbouring Eritrea two years ago, for which Abiy won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

Abiy’s government also has troops deployed in Somalia helping to combat an Islamist insurgency.

Sudan has received more than 10 000 Ethiopian refugees since the start of an escalating deadly conflict in their country last week, a Sudanese government refugees official said on Wednesday, saying the humanitarian situation was “critical”.

“We are in a very critical humanitarian situation because these numbers, which we expect to increase, are greater than our capabilities, and there is an acute shortage of food, shelter and treatment, and they are in urgent need of help,” Alsir Khaled, from the refugees commission in eastern Sudan.

Sudan expects more than 200 000 Ethiopians to cross into its eastern state of al-Qadarif in the coming days, state media said, citing sources at the refugee commission.

Abiy, who at 44 is Africa’s youngest leader, launched operations in Tigray last week after accusing the local government of attacking a military base.

The UN, AU and others want a ceasefire, but diplomats believe Abiy is intent on crushing the Tigrayan leaders. “We won’t rest till this junta is brought to justice,” he tweeted.

A former soldier who once fought alongside Tigrayans against Eritrea, Abiy took office in 2018 after a Tigrayan-led government had dominated politics since rebels from their region spearheaded the toppling of Marxist military rule in 1991.

But his efforts to open up a repressive political climate also uncorked ethnic clashes, with hundreds killed and hundreds of thousands forced from homes in the last two years.

The leaders of Oromiya, largest of Ethiopia’s nine ethnic-based regions with around 35 million people, and of Amhara, planned anti-TPLF protests for today in what appeared to be a government campaign to whip up support.

The rallies would protest about “atrocities” and “treason” by the TPLF, said Gizachew Muluneh, spokesperson for the Amhara regional government which backs Abiy. The Addis Ababa mayor’s office also announced demonstrations in coming days and urged residents to donate blood and money to show support for soldiers in Tigray.

The state-appointed human rights commission said six Ethiopian journalists had been arrested. The international Committee to Protect Journalists warned of “a dangerous reversal” of Abiy’s past steps to improve press freedom.

The TPLF was at the forefront of the 1998-2000 war with Eritrea and the defeat of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991. Their forces and militia are wellequipped and number up to 250 000.