Much hinges on success of this rail line
CREATING viable international railways is an essential but challenging task.
The Channel Tunnel, popularly called “The Chunnel”, connecting UK and France took decades to get off the ground, let alone to get under the ground below the bottom of the English Channel. The idea was first proposed in 1802. Such political leaders as Napoleon III, William Gladstone, and even David Lloyd George at the Paris Peace Conference in 1919 proposed the idea.
It is not enough to build a railway. Its long-term maintenance is essential as rail systems are the primary link to a world beyond borders for many countries.
Two examples of the challenge these nations face can be found in both South-East Asia and on the Horn of Africa, both geopolitically strategic to global trade and both near-critical choke points for the movement of goods. A new railway connecting Djibouti and Ethiopia, Africa's second-most populous country, and a failed high-speed railway shared between Singapore and Malaysia clearly illustrate these challenges.
The new Chinese-financed Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway, connecting the Port of Djibouti on the Red Sea with the interior of Ethiopia, was built in 2017 and replaced the nearly defunct Ethio-Djibouti Railway, a metre-gauge rail road that was originally built by the French colonial interests from 1894 to 1917. It remained for nearly all of the 20th Century as the only way that Ethiopian goods could reach the ocean and the world beyond.
Despite its critical importance, the old railway fell into disrepair, eventually ceasing to function in 2004, ending Ethiopia's rail access to the seas. The new Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway finished in 2017 was a welcome restoration of trade links not only for all of Ethiopia but for Djibouti and those countries buying and receiving goods from Ethiopia. The peace agreement signed the following year between Eritrea and Ethiopia strengthened the stability of the rail system as well, no longer threatened with political and military disruption.
The railway was developed also to turn Djibouti into a regional shipping hub as well as to potentially create an alternative transportation corridor for South Sudan’s considerable quantities of high-quality crude oil. The Port of Djibouti handles more than 99% of Ethiopia’s total international trade, with more than 25% of that delivered via the new rail line. Both Djibouti and Ethiopia have much at stake in the success of the rail line.
There has been talk of a high-speed upgrade, but this seems unlikely to occur at any time in the near future as all is not well with the railway, with the much-needed linkage already in danger of collapse due to mismanagement and national and regional antagonisms.
In such cases like the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway, the project is at further risk when its success depends on the whims of autocratic leaders. Foresight and a willingness to work with neighbours is essential for the success of the fledgling rail system, and the development of the two nations. Investment necessary for long-term maintenance will be far more difficult unless there is clear cooperation.
The risk is duplicating the mistakes made in the proposed Singapore-Malaysia rail project, but the consequences may be far more dire, not only for the two countries and the region, but also for global interests.