A possible route to stable coalition building

SOUTH Africa’s municipal government elections in 2021 produced a number of largely unstable local government coalitions.

There’s now a strong possibility that the next government formed at a national level may be a coalition too.

This would be the first since the dawn of democracy in 1994.

The elections due in 2024 will test the extent of the declining dominance of the governing ANC. Indeed, some polls suggest the party could fail to secure the 50% of the vote required to form a government.

With no other party tipped to meet the threshold, there might have to be a coalition instead.

Can South Africans expect a national coalition to be stable?

The turbulence in coalitions seen in 2021-2022 suggests not.

The disintegration and reconstitution of municipal coalitions in the past year indicate that many parties are using them as a political battleground between elections.

The result is lack of attention to actually governing cities and providing municipal services.

So, what helps or hinders coalitions? My own research on the international experience of coalition politics shows that South Africa can learn from the conditions in which coalitions elsewhere have been conducive to stable and accountable democratic government. There is a possible route to stable coalition building.

International experience suggests that what tips the balance in favour of stable rather than polarised coalitions is the willingness of political elites to prioritise collective interest over political opportunism.

Parts of Western Europe, such as Austria and Germany, have seen “grand coalitions”.

Under this arrangement, governments are composed of the two largest parties in the parliamentary system.

Latin America has experienced “rainbow coalitions”.

In Chile a multiplicity of different parties have united to form a governing alliance.

For its part Brazil has historically seen a considerable number of “oversized coalitions”. These contain more parties than needed to make a majority.

South Africa’s coalitions at the local government level, in which smaller parties have increasingly become kingmakers, have been fractious alliances lacking programmatic alignment.

It is difficult to see how this would differ at the national level.

The establishment of a system that can help manage differences is fundamental to maintaining coalitions.

Formal coalition agreements cement a joint, published commitment on what the coalition will deliver.

Stable coalitions in South Africa will depend upon embedding these values among elites, and establishing a tradition of deliberation.

South Africa’s own 1994 Government of National Unity was arguably steered by the need for reconciliation and, thus, mediation.

The strength of surrounding institutions is important. Parliamentary scrutiny and legislative debate play a crucial role in ensuring accountability.

Embedding democratic values only comes with the acceptance of the rules of the game. These include compromise and accountability.