Israel mulls Iran strategy
ISRAEL’S war cabinet was to meet for the third time in three days yesterday, an official said, to decide on a response to Iran’s first-ever direct attack, amid international pressure to avoid further escalating the conflicts in the Middle East.
Military chief of staff Herzi Halevi had promised that Saturday night’s launch of more than 300 missiles, cruise missiles and drones from Iran into Israeli territory “will be met with a response”, but gave no details.
While the attack caused no deaths and little damage, thanks to the air defences and countermeasures of Israel and its allies, it has increased concerns that violence rooted in the Gaza war is spreading, and fears of open war between the long-time foes.
Iran launched the attack in retaliation for an airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1 attributed to Israel, but signalled that it did not seek further escalation.
President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the weekend that the US, Israel’s main protector, would not participate in an Israeli counter-strike.
Together with European allies, Washington instead strove yesterday to toughen economic and political sanctions to persuade Israel to abstain from violent retaliation.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said he was “leading a diplomatic attack”, writing to 32 countries to ask them to place sanctions on Iran’s missile programme and follow Washington in proscribing its dominant military force, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, as a terrorist group.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US would use sanctions, and work with allies, to keep disrupting Iran’s “malign and destabilising activity”.
EU foreign ministers scheduled a video meeting on the Middle East for yesterday. Last year, Germany campaigned with France and other EU partners to extend an existing EU sanctions regime against Iran that targets drone production.
Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, said yesterday that several EU members had now promised to look again at extending those sanctions, announcing that she would head to Israel within hours to discuss how to prevent an escalation.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the Group of Seven major democracies was working on a package of measures against Iran; Italy, which has the G7 presidency, suggested any new sanctions would target individuals.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani had told state TV on Monday night that Tehran’s response to any Israeli counter-attack would come in “a matter of seconds, as Iran will not wait another 12 days to respond”.
The prospect of Israeli retaliation has also alarmed many Iranians already enduring economic pain and tighter social and political controls since protests in 2022-23.
Since the war in Gaza began in October, clashes have erupted between Israel and Iran-aligned groups based in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
Israel said four of its soldiers were wounded hundreds of metres inside Lebanese territory overnight, the first known Israeli ground penetration into Lebanon since the Gaza war erupted, although it has traded fire with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby declined to say if Biden had urged Netanyahu to exercise restraint in responding to Iran.
Some analysts said the Biden administration was unlikely to seek to sharpen sanctions on Iran’s oil exports due to worries about boosting oil prices and angering top buyer China.
In a call between the Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers, China said it believed Iran could “handle the situation well and spare the region further turmoil” while safeguarding its sovereignty and dignity, according to Chinese state media.
Russia has refrained from publicly criticising its ally Iran but has also warned against further escalation.
Iran’s weekend attack caused modest damage in Israel and wounded a 7-year-old girl. Most missiles and drones were shot down by Israel’s Iron Dome defence system and with help from the US, Britain, France and Jordan.
In Gaza itself, where more than 33 000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli offensive according to Gaza health ministry figures, Iran’s action drew applause.
Israel began its campaign against Hamas, the Iranian-backed Palestinian militant group that runs Gaza, after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, killing 1 200 people and taking 253 hostages, by Israeli tallies.
Iran’s attack prompted at least a dozen airlines to cancel or reroute flights, with Europe’s aviation regulator still advising caution in using Israeli and Iranian airspace.
Yesterday, Israeli tanks pushed back into some areas of the northern Gaza Strip which they had left weeks ago, while warplanes conducted air strikes on Rafah, the Palestinians’ last refuge in the south of the territory, killing and wounding several people. Residents reported an internet outage in Beit Hanoun and Jabalia in northern Gaza.
After six months of fighting, there is still no sign of a breakthrough in US-backed talks led by Qatar and Egypt to clinch a ceasefire deal in Gaza, as Israel and Hamas stick to their mutually irreconcilable conditions.
Israel is still imposing “unlawful” restrictions on humanitarian relief for Gaza, the UN human rights office said yesterday, despite assertions from Israel that barriers have eased. The amount of aid now entering Gaza is disputed, with Israel and Washington saying aid flows have risen in recent days but UN agencies say it is still far below bare minimum levels.