Analysis: Cosatu infighting could split alliance
ANALYSTS are divided on whether the internal combustion that has engulfed Cosatu recently will eventually lead to the federation’s split.
The tensions inside Cosatu show labour relations are in a state of collapse and are a symptom of that, Loane Sharp, a labour economist at Adcorp, said yesterday.
“The infighting is largely between the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa), and has been going on for years. Cosatu is losing relevance with its members,” he said.
Sharp was echoing a sentiment expressed by Gwede Mantashe, the secretary general of the ANC. The party leads the tripartite alliance of itself, Cosatu and the SACP.
In March Mantashe told Cosatu’s bargaining conference: “The unions are under siege because… of a lack of experience among organisers and officials who are not equipped to deal with those challenges. Workers will begin to look for alternatives. When workers look for alternatives, they don’t hear us and they don’t feel us.”
Mantashe said Cosatu was divided and there was a split in its top leadership, adding: “You are going to destroy it [Cosatu]. In a year’s time, there will be no Cosatu… All other campaigns are going to fall flat if there is no organisation.”
Sharp said the allegations of corruption earlier levelled against Zwelinzima Vavi, the federation’s general secretary, and calls for his resignation following a sexual indiscretion with a colleague were the first stage of the collapse. “Cosatu’s opposition to the youth wage subsidy is also causing tensions within the alliance.”
He said he thought Cosatu would replace its leadership before a break-up.
Michael Bagraim, a labour lawyer and former president of the Cape Chamber of Commerce, said Cosatu was stronger than any individual. “There will be more acrimony and allegations but Cosatu will hold strong. But the alliance will split. The real fight is with the ANC and the ANC must not interfere in the internal problems of the federation. Cosatu is a mature organisation although one or two individuals might be lost in the process.”
He said there was a marriage between Cosatu and its constituent unions and he would be shocked if Numsa or NUM walked out.
Peter Attard Montalto, the London-based emerging markets economist at investment bank Nomura International, said he did not think there would be a split in Cosatu. But the selfdestruction in the federation would keep violence and strike action bubbling up.
“It is difficult to see Cosatu splitting up, given the history of the organisation. We know Mantashe is critical of Cosatu, I think there’ll be a split in the [tripartite] alliance. This would allow Numsa to take on more aggressive union tactics. It is all about power and personality struggles.”
Montalto said labour seemed to have become increasingly disaggregated – both with unions such as the Association for Mineworkers and Construction Union coming along, and with strike action across a range of sectors being increasingly led from the ground by localised groups of workers who were operating only in the very loosest sense within a union structure.