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ready to change, and whether the skilled diaspora is ready to come home to roost and build.
Broadly, the developing world is likely to make the transition to consumer and democratic societies, and that will allow their economic ascent. The risks of war cannot be dismissed as conflict is a constant theme in shaping the world, but it’s hard to forecast a conflagration of such a scale as the early 20th century witnessed.
The deepening of the use of technology in everything from milking cows and growing crops to fracking oil and harnessing the sun will have long-term, liberating, and far-reaching growth consequences.
It seems that food and energy are sufficiently abundant to allow for continued prosperity (and with that peace). Daniel Malan, CIO at RE:CM says technological breakthroughs and changes in the ways that energy is generated, distributed and consumed have the potential to disrupt, transform and create entire industries.
Advancements in nanotechnology should alter some consumer behaviours and the advancement of 3D printing-additive manufacturing will change the way that manufacturing is conducted, and will shape the relative power of nations and industries.
However, with a planet of seven billion people and large regions that have significant resources and others that don’t, the provision and security of food and clean drinking water is of paramount importance.
Companies and industries that help to solve these critical problems will probably do very well.” Matthew Warren, head of financials and retailers at FIRST AVENUE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT says just as improved efficiencies in ocean going shipments and airfreight have lowered the financial hurdle for shipping goods around the world, cheaper telecommunications and computing power have encouraged cross border trade in outsourced services. These developments have accelerated global labour arbitrage over the past couple decades. Tony Bell, CIO, VUNANI FUND MANAGERS to tease out the essence of any market dynamic creates a more robust framework within which to challenge convention and observe the subtleties of change.
“Next 25 years? America as the new emerging economy; Japan as the technological centre of innovation. Africa facing the possible loss of income from oil as shale gas creates energy independence in the US, China and elsewhere.
“Africa will need to address this development threat through changing current policy drivers towards investing more heavily in infrastructure and job creation.
“Africa has abundant labour, energy, clean water and space. It needs to harness these in a sustainable, value add approach that results in export revenue moving towards agricultural exports, beneficiation of minerals and investment in industry and infrastructure that starts to compete with Asia for high-end technical skills.
“Ageing populations in China and Japan supported by the influx of western talent as policy frameworks change to liberalise their economies (witness Singapore). Nanotech revolutionising healthcare. Social networks becoming the new retail networks.” Roland Grabe at SYm|mETRY says countries that have strong human capital are able to increase productivity while curbing salary inflation through the use of technology and leveraging positive labour culture.
This enables a country to become increasingly competitive on a global scale in a variety of industries. An example of this is the US becoming more competitive in manufacturing by keeping labour cost inflation low and increasing output.
It is very possible that the US will emerge as a manufacturing powerhouse over the next 25 years or so.
“The role of demographics in driving long term growth trends is more complex than portrayed. Having positive population growth is not by itself a driver of growth.
“Only in the context of flexible labour law, high quality education, equal access to opportunities and free markets will the population dynamics of Asia, India and Africa translate into positive growth drivers.
‘Therefore what happens politically in these regions will determine whether a high road or low road scenario will play out in developing regions.”