Nigeria polls a barometer for democracy
NIGERIA’S election on March 28, already postponed once and fraught with tension, may determine investor and foreign leaders’ perceptions of whether democracy has taken hold in Africa.
As the continent’s most populous country, its biggest economy and top oil producer, Nigeria’s conduct during and after the vote is being closely monitored. Thenation has not had a peaceful transition of power between parties since independence from the UK in 1960, with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in charge since a return to civilian rule in 1999. It is facing its toughest contest after opposition parties merged in 2013 to unseat President Goodluck Jonathan.
“This election will be a bellwether for the entire continent,” said Linda ThomasGreenfield, the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs. “The world is watching, the continent is watching, Nigeria’s neighbours are watching this election.”
Safety
Electoral authorities postponed the election one week before it was scheduled to take place on February 14, following a request from Jonathan’s security adviser, Sambo Dasuki, who said the military was too stretched fighting an Islamist insurgency in the north-east to keep voters safe. Civil rights groups have warned of the threat of a constitutional crisis if the vote is postponed again or scrapped.
The political uncertainty, coupled with a plunge in oil prices, caused the currency to drop 18 percent against the dollar in the past six months, the worst performer of 24 African nations tracked by Bloomberg. The naira gained 0.3 percent to 198.95 per dollar at 12.43pm yesterday in Lagos.
Muhammadu Buhari, a former military leader who aims to unseat Jonathan, said that the election had “great implications” beyond Nigeria’s borders and it would test the strength of the principle that voters could replace governments without provoking violence.
“Peaceful alternation of power through competitive elections have happened in Ghana, Senegal, Malawi and Mauritius in recent times,” Buhari said at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, London. “The prospects of democratic consolidation in Africa will be further brightened when that eventually happens in Nigeria.”
Militants
A survey of 2 400 adults in December showed support was evenly split at 42 percent for the PDP and Buhari’s All Progressives Congress, according to Afrobarometer, a research group.
Nigeria’s election four years ago, which Jonathan won by about 59 percent, was followed by days of rioting in which hundreds of people were killed, according to Human Rights Watch. Buhari, who was a candidate in the three previous elections, protested against his defeat, claiming the vote was rigged.
In a country roughly divided between a Muslim north and Christian south, the demonstrations degenerated into sectarian and eth- nic violence, as mainly proBuhari Muslims targeted Christians and southerners, prompting reprisal attacks.
“When people look at decent elections, they look at Ghana and Botswana, these they respect,” Jesper Cullen, a sub-Saharan Africa analyst at Risk Advisory Group, a global risk management consultancy said. “People look at Nigeria and expect it will be bad, expect unrest.”
Tension has intensified as the military struggles to contain a six-year insurgency by Boko Haram militants. Its campaign to impose Islamic law has spilled into neighbouring countries, killed about 15 000 people since 2009, and forced at least a million Nigerians from their homes.
“The signs are that there is greater potential for violence and civil unrest in Nigeria than last time, and this time there is a much more severe threat of terrorism,” Cullen said. – Bloomberg