Cause for concern

AFTER exercising restraint in its nuclear weapons programme for decades, China has made the poor choice of upgrading its arsenal in a way that raises concerns about its intentions, introduces new uncertainty in Asia and could add more fuel to a regional arms race.

The unsettling development is China’s decision to equip its most powerful missile, the DF-5 or Dong Feng (East Wind), which can reach the US, with multiple warheads instead of just one.

China’s move along this path does not represent a big increase in its nuclear capability. It is among the five recognised nuclear powers and a signatory to major arms control agreements, including the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

It has an estimated 250 warheads in total, with about three warheads on each of about 20 DF-5 missiles. All of this is a fraction of what the US and Russia possess in their arsenals.

Nevertheless, the decision to outfit its missiles with multiple warheads is of concern for several reasons. Although the technology to miniaturise weapons and put several atop a missile has been in China’s hands for decades, a series of leaders chose not to go forward and compete in the kind of arms race that for decades sapped American and Soviet resources. Instead, China espoused a doctrine of maintaining a minimal nuclear force that would be used only to retaliate against a nuclear attack, not initiate one. And while China’s arsenal has been growing slowly, putting MIRVs on missiles is a way to expand more quickly and it sows doubt about the commitment to a minimal deterrent.

China has long been concerned about the survivability of its nuclear force, and while the Americans insist its missile defences are aimed at shooting down potential incoming North Korean missiles, China worries, perhaps understandably, that some of its weapons could also be vulnerable.