Drop in maize output likely to push up food prices in region

ERRATIC weather patterns characterised by floods and droughts have made a dent on southern Africa’s food production, resulting in an average regional drop in maize output of 22 percent over the past summer, according to the latest report by the Food and Nutrition Security Working Group.

The drop in South Africa’s maize production alone could trigger higher prices for a range of foods within the region, the report by the UNaffiliated body said. This would lead to a rise in the number of people in the region without enough to eat.

The report attributed the drop in regional cereal production to the “uncharacteristic and erratic” 2014/15 summer rainfall season.

Almost all southern African countries that submitted data reported a decline in maize production, with the exception of Swaziland and Tanzania.

The biggest decline was in Namibia, which had a 37 percent drop in production last season, compared to the previous five-year average. This was followed by Zimbabwe (also with a 37 percent decline); South Africa (22 percent) and Malawi (22 percent).

The report described South Africa’s decline in maize pro- duction as a serious concern, as the country was the biggest maize producer in the region.

“It might trigger higher food prices in the short term in surrounding countries as grain is – apart from human consumption – a basic input for the production of red meat, poultry, eggs and milk,” the report noted.

Droughts reduced crop production in South Africa’s maize belt and in southern Angola, southern Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia. Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique were affected by both droughts and floods.

However, the report said South Africa and Zambia would still be able to export maize because of a carry-over of stocks from the previous season.

Grain SA expected to have a surplus of 100 000 metric tonnes of white maize, but this might not be enough to meet the needs of the neighbouring countries of Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland until the next harvest in May next year.

The report said Zambia, the second biggest producer of maize in the region, might have produced enough to cover its domestic needs, but could only marginally cover demand from neighbouring countries.

“Countries in the region may see their situation aggravated by the inability to import quickly the right amount of maize to fill the gap. While it is still uncertain how vulnerable poor populations will adapt to the increased cost of the basic food basket in countries with relatively weak economies – Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi and Zimbabwe – the current price trend gives indications that the lean season might start early in most countries,” the report said.

Drought had led to water shortages in some areas, which in turn would affect livestock production in the few months to follow, because of poor grazing.

A Unicef report on malnutrition says all southern African countries – including South Africa – had stunting rates in the population above 20 percent, a development deemed unacceptable by the WHO. It might trigger higher food prices in the short term in surrounding countries

Grain is a basic input for the production of red meat, eggs and milk