To Iranians, solving nuke stand-off is about money, jobs

VIENNA: To Iran’s leaders, solving a nuclear stand-off with the West might be a question of maintaining geopolitical influence and prestige. To its ordinary citizens, it’s about money, food and jobs.

Years of tightening international sanctions – designed to counter Iranian evasion and secrecy and guarantee that Iran’s nuclear programme can have no military dimension – have closed hundreds of factories and halved living standards. No wonder, then, that the desire runs deep for negotiators to do a deal in Vienna by their self-imposed deadline of July 7.

“The textile factory where I worked for 15 years was closed last month after not being able to pay our wages for three months,” said Mohammad Seirafzadeh, 47. “I am a simple worker. I don’t understand the nuclear issue or politics. If the deal will help me to find a job and feed my children, then we should have it.”

Over the last three decades, Iranians have become used to US trade restrictions. But since 2011-2012, when the US and EU began restricting Iran’s ability to sell oil or conduct financial transactions abroad, the pain for many of its 76 million people has become acute.

Sharp cuts in subsidies brought about by the reduction in state revenues mean that the cost of electricity, water and natural gas has tripled since 2010, for businesses and individuals alike. Iranian media say hundreds of factories have been forced to close in Tehran province alone.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that per capita GDP plunged to $6 500 (R79 367) in 2013 from $12 000 in 2012, on a purchasing-power basis.

Certainly, there are many for whom Iran’s nuclear programme is a matter of national pride. But the arrival of Hassan Rouhani, the pragmatic president elected in 2013 on a promise to end Iran’s isolation and revive the economy, does appear to have brought some relief, not least because an interim nuclear agreement in November 2013 led to an easing of sanctions.

He has received cautious support from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been prepared to compromise on the nuclear issue in the light of growing economic problems, despite his deep distrust of the US.

Since Rouhani’s election, the official inflation rate has halved, but it is still a hefty 18 percent. Official unemployment remains around 15 percent, a figure that does not reflect the huge number of jobs that pay less than a living wage, and the gap between rich and poor is widening.

Iran was never barred from buying food and other basic necessities under sanctions. Much of its food and animal feed are imported, and many of its factories assemble goods from imported parts.

But the measures have made trade more difficult for the past two years. Yet behind all the complaints, there is a growing sense of anticipation, at least in the business community, that the long wait for things to improve could soon be at an end.

Currency traders are even refusing to trade foreign currency, especially US dollars, as they await an agreement.