Rise of the far right

FRANCE’S political prospects appear as ominous as at any time in the republic’s recent history. After the first round of the regional elections, the far-right National Front of Marine Le Pen is ahead of the mainstream parties, and poised for a breakthrough.

This is not only a consequence of the terrorist attacks just over three weeks ago.

Security was indeed high in voters’ minds, and that was easily exploited by Le Pen’s anti-immigration and anti-Muslim rhetoric. But the National Front surge is as much to do with the dismal state of France’s economic and social affairs. Unemployment is at 10.4 percent and still rising.

Since she won the leadership of the National Front four years ago, Le Pen has actively attempted to rebrand it as a less controversial entity, to widen the party’s appeal.

Casting herself as a defender of those who feel ignored by Parisian elites, she has effectively attracted voters to her party from across the political spectrum. The National Front is capitalising on a shrewd strategy of appealing beyond the disfranchised middle class and workers’ families hit by the economic crisis to a wider constituency of people who feel the republican model of laïcité, France’s brand of secularism, has come under threat from the growth of Islamic radicalism.

Le Pen has never hidden her political ambitions. Her electoral success will come as a spectacular illustration of how the European project is under challenge from proponents of a full-blown return to the nation state. She is seeking to build up a Europewide coalition of like-minded far-right or ultra-conservative movements with strong Eurosceptic views. Under Le Pen, the National Front now has the chance of power. In control of one or more regional governments, it will be able to cast itself as a party not just of protest but potentially of government, and Le Pen has her eyes firmly set on the 2017 presidential election.