Gloom for Kurds

THE inevitable demise of the Isil caliphate in Iraq/Syria will be the end of Act One in the current Middle East tragedy. Act Two will concern the Kurds. Culturally, they occupy areas in Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran, as well as communities around the globe.

Although never having a sovereign state, they enjoyed a de facto existence as the Ottoman “Kurdistan” buffer against the Persians in Iran for centuries. Their “quartering” had a lot to do with the British/French dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. The Kurds have been viewed as a threat by their host nations, with predictable results. The gassing of Iraqi Kurd villages by Saddam Hussein may be recalled.

The Western invasion of Iraq seemingly offered salvation as the Kurds allied themselves with the invaders. The capable Kurdish Peshmerga forces are pushing back Isil with the objective of controlling Mosul. In Northern Syria, with American approval, they appear to have been carving out a substantial strip of land so as to gain Mediterranean access.

In Turkey’s south-east, around Lake Van, Turkish forces are locked in combat with the PKK in what must be the most unreported arena of this conflict. In Iran, only last week, the Kurds fought elements of the Revolutionary Guard.

While the “Western” strategy appeared to support the establishment of an independent Kurdistan, this is unacceptable to the nations from whom the land would have to come.

If the Kurds do get their Promised Land, then expect bitter conflict. If they don’t, then civil conflicts will escalate as host nations like Turkey attempt to annihilate them, a process which, it seems, has already begun.

With the possible exception of Israel, the Kurds have no local friends. As the war appetite of the Americans and other Western allies weakens, so will the Kurdish dream of an independent state which can never enjoy the same level of Western support, as did the establishment of Israel in 1947. That would create another stream of refugees seeking refuge in Europe.

One can only imagine the Kurdish people’s feeling of betrayal at this juncture, and their likelihood of wanting to wreak revenge on the civilians of their former friends. James Cunningham Camps Bay