$337bn loss as bonds whipsaw

GLOBAL bond investors lost $337 billion (R5 trillion) in a single day on Wednesday as Donald Trump’s election as US president sparked concern his plan to boost economic growth would lead to a surge in inflation.

The total market value of bonds around the world slid by $692bn over the past three days, data compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch showed, bolstered by speculation Trump’s victory and a Republican-led Congress would lead to a wave of spending. Traders boosted their inflation outlook and increased bets the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates.

Bonds had initially risen on haven demand as the early vote count showed Trump set to win the election, before changing direction.

“Trumpeconomics implies a likely faster pace of Fed rate hikes next year,” said Robert Rennie, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac Banking Corp in Sydney.

“It is clear that this wave of populist vote has reflected, in part, dislike of tight fiscal, easy monetary policy. If we are now seeing a shift in the US, then that means markets will have to reprice this.”

The US 10-year note yield would climb to 2.3 percent by June, Rennie said.

The benchmark was at 2.02 percent as of 6.09am in London yesterday, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data.

The yield jumped 20 basis points on Wednesday, the most on a single day since July 2013.

Trump, the 70-year-old real estate magnate, has pledged to cut taxes and boost spending on infrastructure by as much as $500bn.

His proposals would increase the nation’s debt by $5.3trn, the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated.

The government’s marketable debt has more than doubled under President Barack Obama, to a record of almost $14trn.

The extra yield on US 30year treasuries over two-year notes surged to the highest since February on Wednesday as investors priced in Trump’s pro-growth policies.

The spread was at 195 basis points Thursday, after reaching 199 basis points a day before. – Bloomberg