There is plenty of untapped potential for growth and development in Africa

IN THIS column I continue to analyse and present the results of the international comparisons programme (ICP). In the previous column I discussed price level indices based on the ICP and demonstrated the high price level indices (PLIs) of South Africa relative to the rest of the continent, especially the east board and north Africa.

The ICP as a data resource reveals more about Africa’s economies than any other statistical series. It is based on an inspection of a thousand products that Africans consume.

It is a global programme that applies purchasing power parities, which in the main eliminate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations and measure real country gross domestic product (GDP) in contradistinction to nominal GDPs.

It is a globally co-ordinated programme measuring the economies of countries in a given year, and the report is based on 2011 ICP. Since 2016 we embarked on preparations for ICP 2017. I continue to serve on the board of ICP which is convened by the World Bank. Africa is co-ordinated in this effort by the African Development Bank.

Rebasing

Figure 1 provides an ICP based purchasing power parity GDP figures of Africa. This data and presentation is before Nigeria became the biggest economy in Africa after rebasing its GDP.

The numbers show that Egypt was the biggest economy having surpassed South Africa in 2011, and South Africa was second and Nigeria third. But with the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP, a matter that captured headlines, Nigeria was first, Egypt second and South Africa third.

In this column I cannot but remember the words of the former Finance Minister of Nigeria, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala at the Abuja summit of Ministers of Finance and Economy. Commenting on growth and what the ordinary Nigerians ask, she broke the news in pidgin “Oga parapata never tell you finish. She talk you say growth growth growth. Na growth I de chop?”

It is the story of Africa’s growth and Africa rising narrative. In particular the economic growth of Nigeria.

Ordinary Nigerians say the big man, government, tell you about growth and growth all the time, but can you eat growth (Na growth I de chop?).

Professor Chukuka Okonjo, now retired and an Igwe and Obi of Ogwashiukwu and father to Dr Djokovic-Iweala, was my director and professor at the UN Regional Institute for Population Studies at the University of Ghana, Legon in 1980/81.

He lectured us on the demographic dividend and how Africa could capture this phenomenon through a double intake system at universities. He advocated sweating of the university assets that lie idle for at least 40 percent of the year when universities go on vacation.

How farsighted, although not in the terminology of the demographic dividend, was Professor Okonjo, who is in his late 90s now. This is the question her daughter as the then minister of finance had to answer 33 years later. Na growth I de chop? A question our #FeesMustFall should address in our land as regards education.

Figure 2 shows how the benefits of growth at a GDP per capita basis are distributed per country.

Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Algeria propelled by their oil economies have ideally manged to potentially show their per capita GDP size. South Africa, Mauritius and Seychelles also display higher per capita GDP incomes. However, the story is not complete without looking at inequality. This will be a column for another day, but suffice to present another figure that sheds light on welfare which in many ways points to the distribution of the benefits of growth.

Figure 3 shows that non-oil producing countries with their relatively lower per capita incomes have much better welfare outcomes compared to richer and high per capita income countries. In this league we can record small island countries like Mauritius, with a population of 4 million, and Seychelles with a population of under 90 000. In the tens of millions we can see Egypt with 120 million people faring better in the provision of welfare to its citizens and indeed at 54 million South Africa with just twenty years of democracy successfully driving welfare benefits to its population despite its high PLIs. Nigeria, with its economic muscle as the number one economy on the African continent, features nowhere in the charts of welfare.

The cartograms, which are a distortion of the physical map, present a population based socio economic phenomena. Such enables us to understand the vexed question of a demographic dividend and what it may take for Africa to realise it.

It is a vexed question given that data shows Africa’s potential not only for growth but for development, and therefore how do we appropriate the medicine that Professor Chukuka Okonjo opined in his seminal work on double intake at university almost four decades ago for us to catch up on the demographic dividend?

For his seminal work and stellar and distinguished contribution President Mahama of Ghana conferred on this nonagenarian Profesor Chukuka Okonjo of Nigeria the highest civilian order a month ago, on the 29th of October. This award further reminds us of the 2011 critique he made on the impact and progress in

The ICP as a data resource reveals more about Africa’s economies than any other statistical series. It is based on an inspection of a thousand products.

western education versus that of African education, economic development and prosperity.

Dr Pali Lehohla is South Africa’s Statistician-General, Head of Statistics South Africa and President of Africa Symposium for Statistical Development. From January 15 to 18 South Africa hosts the very first UN World Data Forum in Cape Town. To register visit undataforum.org