Old questions to haunt Syrian peace talks
GENEVA: When Syria peace talks restart in Geneva today after 10 months in the deep-freeze, familiar disagreements are likely to resurface, despite massive changes in the military and political context.
President Bashar al-Assad’s military advances, with Russian and Iranian help, have transformed the battlefield since the last UN talks broke up without progress in April last year.
The political context is similarly unrecognisable, with new leadership in Washington and the UN and tentative co-ordination between Turkey, Russia and Iran.
While a ceasefire exists, at least nominally, across most of Syria, there has been little movement on the issues that dogged previous rounds of talks.
The conflict that began with street protests six years ago has evolved into a complex multi-sided war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and created the world’s worst refugee crisis.
The opposition will press for prisoner releases, the lifting of government sieges, and above all for a political transition leading to the end of al-Assad’s rule.
The government side is expected to stick with its view that the entire armed opposition are terrorists. And with al-Assad militarily stronger than he has been for years, it has the option of pressing home its advantage on the ground if it doesn’t get its way at the negotiating table.
“The opposition should understand that there are new realities on the ground in Syria and international changes – it’s not like it was in 2011,” said pro-al-Assad Syrian parliamentarian Sharif Shehadeh.
“The circumstances, the (battlefield) has changed, the political situation has changed, so they need to go with a mindset of participation, not exclusion.”
Anas al-Abdah, head of the opposition Syrian National Coalition, said: “We are fully committed to the Geneva talks and prepared to discuss a political solution and transition. We cannot address the profound security threats while Assad remains in power.”
UN mediator Staffan de Mistura summed up his mood as “determined” as he prepared for Syrian delegates to arrive yesterday. He wants to focus on reforming the governance of Syria, introducing a new constitution, and holding elections under UN supervision.
Some opposition figures and Western and Arab diplomats fear if al-Assad stays in power, the violence will continue to simmer. A leak of a Russian-drafted constitution suggests he could continue for several seven-year terms. The opposition says he is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths. His government blames the rebels for the bloodshed.
Western diplomats said De Mistura was hopeful of bringing the opposing Syrian factions face to face – unlike last year when he was forced to shuttle between them in “proximity talks”.