The moral hazard

IHAVE lost count of the number of times I have made references to Milan W Svolik’s seminal book, The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. It is difficult to ignore it in a country like Zimbabwe as it provides a useful framework and great insight into the unfolding political events and processes.

In fact, it is now even more relevant after the dramatic military takeover. That is why cool heads and strategic thinkers are required now more than ever before to take the country out of this dangerous turmoil towards recovery and prosperity.

Using the tools of game theory, Svolik explains why some dictators establish personal autocracy and stay in power for decades; why elsewhere leadership changes are regular and institutionalised; why some dictatorships are ruled by soldiers; and why a country’s authoritarian past casts a long shadow over its prospects for democracy.

The use of repression by dictators to maintain control and influence is usually effective, but potentially damning. Repressing elite dissent or pressure from the masses below does not come without a cost, what Svolik describes as the “moral hazard in authoritarian repression”.

Empowering repressive agents, that is the military and other security forces, equips them with the resources to both suppress opposition and overthrow the regime itself if necessary. Mugabe gave the military all the wherewithal to suppress the opposition since 1980. Now the same military used those means to topple him. – Dumisani Muleya, Editor: Zimbabwe Independent