Analysts predict a tough year in politics
SOUTH AFRICANS should fasten their seatbelts and prepare for a very tense and uncertain year ahead in politics, say analysts.
Prepare yourselves for the bumpy ride of watching the ANC perform a balancing act with its new leadership, a possible recall of President Jacob Zuma, universities dealing with the bombshell and confusing announcement of free education and the earlier-than-usual election campaigns this year, to name a few.
Political analysts agreed that they had no doubt the dominating newsmaker of year will be Zuma, whose name might be No 1 on the agenda when Parliament reconvenes later this month.
Analyst Ralph Mothekga said some were already trying to construct a countdown to the end of Zuma’s tenure.
“We have sobered up since Nasrec (where the ANC’s 54th national elective conference took place) but now we are uncertain as to who is in charge. People want clarity,” Mothekga said following Cyril Ramaphosa’s win as president of the ANC while Zuma is still the president of the country. This means that, politically, Ramaphosa is Zuma’s superior, but in the country’s governmental organogram Zuma is his superior – leaving two centres of power to govern.
Analyst Bheki Mngomezulu said he foresaw that opposition parties would use the Constitutional Court ruling as their starting point in their attempt to remove Zuma from his presidency.
The Constitutional Court ruled that the National Assembly had failed in its constitutional obligation to hold Zuma accountable over the Nkandla issue.
“Since the change in leadership in the ANC in December, the opposition parties will attempt the removal of Zuma from a stronger position, thinking they will receive the support of many more ANC members. I doubt they will succeed,” he said. Mngomezulu advised that one eye this year should be kept on the DA, “who have certainly lost credibility”.
He said the DA and the EFF had invested most of their energy into Zuma, state capture and corruption.
“But what happens when he’s gone? They really need to re-look at their approach and their campaign,” Mngomezulu said.
Political analyst Somadoda Fikeni said that campaigning for 2019 may start early this year as opposition parties “smell blood in the ANC” and would rush to take advantage.
But, he said, if the latest internal problems within the DA were not resolved, South Africa could soon see the fragmentation of the leading opposition party.
Another big prediction for the year is a drama-filled next few weeks when tertiary institutions deal with registration of newcomers.
Zuma had pulled the pin on a hand grenade at the start of the ANC’s elective conference last month by announcing that the government would subsidise free higher education for poor and working-class students.
Fikeni said the confusion might see students pack their bags and walk through the gates of universities demanding free education.
“This may explode by mid-January and I am sure it would dominate news,” he said.
Other big newsmakers predicted for the year include the growth of the economy in the midst of state-capture allegations and corruption in the corporate sector following the scandals that have emerged around Steinhoff and KPMG.
In KwaZulu-Natal, Fikeni said the province would not only have to deal with the recent disbanding of the executive committee and tense court battles but also the “humiliating” defeat in the elective conference.
“Will they choose to focus on the unity of the party, defend Zuma in his legal battles or address the infighting between Sihle Zikalala and Senzo Mchunu?
“Whatever it is, we can be assured that it is going to be a rough and exciting year ahead,” Fikeni said.