Beware the false favourite
ANY top jockey, and Piere Strydom has banged this drum for years, will tell you that they ride many a false favourite, simply because they are aboard. It is obviously testament to their ability but in the final analysis it is up to the punter to sort out what is a worthy favourite and what is possibly a false favourite.
Anton Marcus has almost free rein in KZN and, given his winning strike rate, he is not a bad judge when it comes to picking the plums.
Currently lying second on the National Jockey log with a nearly 29% winning strike rate from a third of the number of mounts as log leader Muzi Yeni who is 13 winners clear and flits from centre to centre, the stats tell the story.
Prime example is today’s poly meeting at Greyville where Marcus has fancied rides in all of the seven races where he is pencilled in.
Two of those are for Brett Crawford. First up is Ultra Magnus in the second. Marcus partnered the colt to an easy end-to-end victory over course and distance first up and has stayed with the ride.
The form of that race has proved to be a little suspect but the stable have high hopes and Ultra Magnus must surely have come on from the experience.
He has also been an early touch, in from 4-1 to 2-1 in the early exchanges on Track & Ball. The Dennis Drier pairing of JJ’s Captain and Rockcliffe are the most likely threats.
Rockcliffe was not far back in a decent handicap first up out of the maidens while JJ’S Captain has not been out since early June but has shown potential and stable rider Sean Veale is aboard.
Cruz Giovanni
Cruz Giovanni is next up for the Crawford/Marcus combination and they share early 2-1 favouritism with Alistair Gordon’s charge Sigismund.
Marcus was aboard the latter when second best behind Blackburn Roc but with Wilgerbosdrift & Mauritzfontein retained rider Craig Zackey in town, riding arrangements have been reversed with Zackey aboard Cruz Giovanni on debut.
Both could be upstaged by Paddington’s Luck who was a smart second over 1900m last time out and drops to 1600m with the addition of blinkers.
Bookmakers have been unable to chose between stable companions Kazaar and Sir Bernadini in the Pinnacle Stakes and the betting may prove the best guide for punters as to which is the more fancied. Brandon Lerena is generally first call rider for owner Brian Bernard and has ridden both horses recently but Marcus is seldom short of a word or three when it comes to the art of persuasion.
Gunner and Legend look pick of the balance. Craig Eudey has handed in his trainer’s brief and Mike Miller will saddled Eetee in the opening leg of the Jackpot, a modest Qualified Maiden.
The filly has only run one decent race in nine starts but Marcus takes over from an apprentice and a change of environment can often bring a horse on.
However, this is one race where one is advised to go very wide in your exotics.
Fuyu
Shaylen Naidoo makes his first raid on KZN from his Turffontein base and Fuyu, who has shown good pace at her last two starts, should be well suited to the poly track and could prove the pick.
Mark Khan has teamed up with Duncan Howells and Silver Raisin is one of four horses vying for favouritism in the sixth. Laat Lammetjie, Dark Chocolate, Karatage and Pina Colada will all have their supporters.
Mythical Magic is a weak favourite for the seventh, possibly because of the present of Marcus in the saddle as their does not appear to be very much between most of the field. Vallanaut won well on the course last time out and can follow-up while Peggy’s Dream has been dropping steadily in the ratings and looks competitive on this line-up.
Generate
Robbie Hill’s filly Generate with Marcus aboard has been priced up 13-10 for the last after making a smart debut at Scottsville but there has been significant ante-post support for Chanel Allure who comes into the race off a barrier trial.