Testing times for Syria’s Assad
OPPOSING approaches are an early test of whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad can gain political and diplomatic credibility after a nearly eightyear civil war turned him into an international pariah. Many countries cut links with Syria at the start of the war.
Several Gulf states shut or downgraded their embassies, Syria was suspended from the Arab League, flights stopped and border crossings were closed. The US and other countries imposed economic sanctions.
Washington, backed by Gulf countries Saudi Arabia and Qatar, does not want Syria welcomed back into the international community until a political process to end the war is agreed.
“The Saudis are quite helpful in pressing the others. Qatar is also doing the right thing,” said a US official.
The US position suggests Assad is still a long way from being accepted, even after his forces reclaimed most of Syria through victories over Sunni rebels, thanks largely to help from Iran and Russia. The lack of support from Washington and regional heavyweight Riyadh to end Syria’s isolation will make it harder for the country to attract investment needed to rebuild it.
The UAE believes Sunni Muslim states must embrace Syria swiftly to move Assad out of Shia Iran’s orbit, but Saudi Arabia and Qatar back the US approach.
The UAE sees Assad as the “only option”, one Gulf source said, and believes that stemming Iranian influence in Syria could help prevent the kind of hold it now has in Iraq.
During the war, the UAE supported armed groups opposed to Assad. But its role was less prominent than that of Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
US and Saudi officials have spoken to other Gulf countries, urging them not to restore ties with Syria. They particularly want to ensure that those countries do not back Syria’s return to the Arab League, and that embassies are kept closed.
With Assad strengthening his position militarily, relations with some countries have started to thaw.
The UAE reopened its Damascus embassy in December – a major boost for Assad, and the US “gave the Emiratis flak”, said the US official.
“In the last seven years there has been absolutely zero Arab influence in Syria – a disaster,” UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash said in Washington.
More Arab states need to engage “to crowd the space” taken by Russia and Iran, who support Assad, and Turkey, which backs the rebels.
The next step for Syria’s international rehabilitation could be reinstatement to the Arab League, something Assad’s government would possibly use to show its return from the diplomatic wilderness. The League said last week that there was not yet the necessary consensus for this to happen, and the US is pushing hard to ensure it does not, the sources said. “Saudi Arabia and Egypt are working to slow down Syria’s readmittance to the Arab League.”
Not all Arab League nations severed ties with Syria after the outbreak of the war in 2011. Oman maintained diplomatic ties with Damascus. Bahrain said its embassy in Damascus has been operating. Kuwait said in December it would reopen its embassy in Damascus once the Arab League allowed it.
Saudi Arabia has no plans now to normalise ties. “Everything is suspended” until Syrians agree a transition from Assad’s rule.
Rival Qatar said in January it sees no “encouraging” signs for restoring relations. Abu Dhabi hopes it can sway Syria towards the business-friendly UAE model, and Dubai can play a role as a hub for trade with Syria.
A senior Western diplomat said without a UN-led political process it would be difficult for sanctions to be lifted, clearing the way for investment. “I don’t think this is the end of the war and time for reconstruction.” | Reuters