Dashed hopes may deter Iranians from voting in parliamentary elections

CONFRONTATION with the US, economic hardship and an airline tragedy have battered Iranians’ confidence in their leaders, posing a potential problem for the authorities in a parliamentary election this week.

As the Friday vote nears, Iranians are exhausted by a succession of crises that have helped to shred the hopes for a better life they harboured only four years ago. That does not bode well for leaders seeking a big turn-out at the ballot box – crowded polling stations would signal to Washington Iran is unbowed by sanctions and the killing of a prominent general in a US strike.

Allies of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have ensured hardliners dominate the field – meaning that, whatever the turn-out, security hawks seeking a more confrontational approach with Washington may tighten their control of the legislature.

But a meagre showing would still rattle Iran’s leaders and embolden critics both in the country and outside who argue the Islamic Republic needs to change domestic and foreign policy.

Four years ago, things looked very different. President Hassan Rouhani and his allies won big gains in parliamentary elections, and many hoped a nuclear deal agreed with world powers in 2015 would pull Iran out of political isolation and boost the economy. Those aspirations crumbled after US President Donald Trump quit the pact in 2018 and reimposed sanctions in an effort to put stricter limits on Iran’s nuclear work, curb its ballistic missile programme and end its involvement in regional proxy wars.

The authorities have been under pressure since last year when protests over a fuel price hike were met with the bloodiest crackdown since the 1979 Islamic revolution, killing hundreds. A US drone strike that felled top commander Qassem Soleimani last month in Iraq rallied Iranians around a common cause. But the show of support was quickly replaced by angry protests over efforts to cover up the accidental shooting down of a Ukrainian airliner that killed all 176 aboard.

The elite Revolutionary Guards apologised for the calamity, but that did not appease thousands protesting.

Yesterday, Khamenei said voting was “a religious duty” for Iranians.

Iran’s hardline Guardian Council vetting body has rejected some 6 850 moderate or conservative hopefuls in favour of hardliners from among the 14 000 applicants seeking to contest the vote.