Marcus on a hiding to nothing
IT would appear from media reports that one of the triggers that precipitated the violent conduct by a small group of irate punters at Hollywoodbets Greyville last week, was primarily aimed at jockey Anton Marcus. However, his favourite in the first race fractured a leg and the Marcus-ridden favourite in the second, Fergie’s Rock, pulled up lame and unplaced which appeared to spark the protest.
Among other grievances that have subsequently emerged was that Hollywoodbets, the racecourse sponsors and leading bookmakers, also sponsor trainers and jockeys that these punters contended could lead to races being ‘fixed’.
Hollywoodbets have vehemently denied all allegations and there is no evidence to suggest otherwise.
Marcus, who is not sponsored by Hollywoodbets and rides freelance for the most, is one of the sought-after jockeys for his proven expertise in the saddle and consequently rides many more fancied horses than his weighing room counterparts.
He does not always get his pick of rides, “I’m often turned down,” he says, but it stands to reason that his judgement, or that of the trainers who often request his services, may not always be on the mark.
In other cases, his mounts may be having an off day or develop some other physical niggle during a race, a fate that can befall any other horse or rider.
Marcus, like all other jockeys, earns his basic salary through riding fees so out of necessity of putting bread on the table, will take rides even if their chances of winning are remote.
The list of possibilities is endless but the simple fact is that his mere presence in the saddle trims the odds on his mounts, whether they have the form to win or not, and are often ‘false favourites’.
The ‘educated’ punter is well aware of this and does not fall into this betting trap easily.
Marcus currently has a national winning strike rate of 30.4% for the season so far, a trend that goes back a decade, while log-leading jockey Warren Kennedy has an 18% winning strike rate.
Those percentages increase on their home courses with Marcus on 32.2% and Kennedy 19.4%.
While you can read whatever you like into statistics, Kennedy is riding for his first National Jockey’s Title and the more rides he gets the better his chances.
The fact that he still boasts a winning strike rate of close to 20% is testimony to his ability.
Marcus, a three-time National Champion and not chasing the title, is more judicious and has 69 winners from just 227 rides.
Kennedy has 165 winners from 898 rides.
The national average of winning favourites at all of the country’s courses, Zimbabwe and Mauritius included, for the past three years is constant at around 30% that equates to close to one in every three favourites winning.
FRONT AND CENTRE is on a recovery mission in the Vasco Da Gama Prix Du Cap at Kenilworth on Saturday after inexplicably flopping in the Bidvest Majorca.
Last season’s WSB Cape Fillies Guineas winner started third favourite for the Met day Grade 1 but finished with only three behind her.
The course vet reported that Anton Marcus’s mount came back with abrasions on her left hind, suggesting that she had a bit of a rough passage, but Brett Crawford is not so sure.
He said yesterday: “We didn’t find much wrong.
“She just seemed to have no gate speed, she was never really travelling well and she produced no finishing effort.” It was the first time that the four-year-old had raced with blinkers and, although she has been declared to wear them again, Crawford is in two minds about fitting them a second time.
The bookmakers seem to think that Front And Centre will run considerably better this time and most have her favourite at 2-1 with Santa Clara (two and a half lengths in front of Front And Centre when ninth in the Majorca) vying for second favouritism – at around 6-1 - with Cartier Sceptre third Golden Chance.
Crawford runs three in the ARF Commemorative Cape Derby in a bid to win the race for the third time following Jackson (2012) and Edict Of Nantes three years ago.
Aldo Domeyer’s mount King Of Gems is the highest rated, and the shortest priced, of the trio and he wears a tongue tie for the second successive race.
“He makes a bit of a noise and we thought the tongue tie would assist him,” explained the Philippi trainer. “He has been doing well, he looks well and his work has been good.”
The Concorde Cup winner is a 17-2 chance with Viva Rio hot favourite at 17-10 ahead of the Justin Snaith pair Sachdev (5-1) and Silver Host (11-2).