Gauteng set to overtake Cape as infections spike
Increased movement and meeting of people contributing to this
INWARD migration and increased congregating, which spur cluster outbreaks, are contributing towards projections that Gauteng will surpass the Western Cape and record the highest Covid-19 numbers in the coming days. Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said his department anticipated that while every province will witness an increase in their numbers, areas where there is high economic activity will experience an exponential rise – starting with Gauteng and followed by the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
As of Sunday night the total number of cases in the country was 138 134. The Western Cape accounted for 60 445, while Gauteng has 36 895.
“We are seeing a rapid rise in the cumulative number of positive Covid19 cases indicating that, as we had expected, we are approaching a surge during the latter winter months of July and August.
“We believe that within the coming days, Gauteng will emerge with the highest Covid-19 numbers.
“Factors contributing to this trend are inward migration; the large population (especially in metros like Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane); increased congregating which spurs cluster outbreaks; and the level to which people are able to adapt to new behaviours such as social distancing and the wearing of masks,” Mkhize said.
He noted that when the national lockdown was eased to level 3, there was a large inward movement of people as economic activities resumed.
“The surge that has been witnessed in the past two weeks has developed due to seeding of infections carried in by members of the community as they moved back into the workplace. It was therefore inevitable there would be cluster outbreaks as infections spilled over from communities into places of congregation such as mines, factories, taxis and buses.
“It therefore remains critical to have well-established screening programmes in place at all junctures where people transition into high-density areas like in the mining sector, where we have observed quite a number of cluster outbreaks as miners return to work,” Mkhzie said. Intensive contact tracing, quarantine and isolation programmes were suboptimal.
“Since the intervention, the Western
Cape has been working hard to address gaps but we are receiving reports that most community members remain reluctant to subject themselves to quarantine and isolation, despite the government having secured these sites in various parts of the province.
“Our concern is that this continues to exacerbate the risk of spread of infections in communities especially in households where it is practically impossible to self-isolate given the limited space,” Mkhize said.