Experts want details on recovery plan
ALL EYES will be on President Cyril Ramaphosa when he delivers the State of the Nation Address in a half-empty House today, and without the usual pomp and ceremony.
The big question on many experts’ lips is what the economic recovery plan will be amid the devastating impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The security cluster said yesterday that parts of the Cape Town CBD would be on lockdown, with restrictions in certain areas and some of the roads close to Parliament closed off.
Speaker Thandi Modise said due to Covid-19 safety protocols they would only have a total of 50 people inside the Chamber, and this would include 30 MPs from various political parties.
The EFF has chosen not to send any of its members to the Chamber, but will join the virtual session.
Development economist at Stellenbosch University Business School, Dr Nthabiseng Moleko, said Ramaphosa should list the priorities of what would stabilise employment and create the more than 10.8 million jobs the nation was in dire need of.
“We need to be told what new strategies will be employed to curb the current Covid-19 decimation of the economy and the disastrous effects of national lockdown, what alternative strategies will be employed to contain Covid-19.
“Imagine a South Africa where the state strengthens human dignity and enables South Africans to realise their full potential,” Moleko said.
She said a vision for revitalisation accompanied by plans and targets was necessary to improve the debt-to-GDP ratio. UCT Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit director Professor Murray Leibbrandt said the president had pushed for investment and the youth stimulus to build a better nation, and this should persist.
“To what extent will the president be defending the employment stimulus he committed to last year? During the last Sona the president tabled the youth stimulus, investing in the youth as the human infrastructure of the country.
“He presented a bold package to keep the country alive in a sense, supporting agency in people, then Covid-19 struck.
“I expect he will acknowledge it’s been a tough time amid Covid-19. But even in Covid he spoke about the need to keep going with infrastructure plans; it’s crucial as part of our recovery plan.
“Including employment stimulus. His whole vision was to provide infrastructure, good schooling, health, roads, so our citizens can flourish. Not for the state to be the primary employment creator.”
Independent health-care strategy consultant Dr James Arens said an honest appraisal of government’s performance in the battle against Covid-19 was necessary, amid vaccine hurdles and predictions of a third wave.
“We need a clearer Covid-19 strategy going forward with respect to the vaccine programme. Less draconian but effective lockdown strategies and a clear articulation of plans and budgets to stimulate the economy. While the lockdowns with their infinite hybrids have been very effective public health strategies in combating the virus, they have indeed worn down heavily on an economically-stretched public, so what’s next?” asked Arens.
Peter Leon, partner and Africa co-chair at international law firm Herbert Smith Freehills, said mining and energy were urgent areas of concern. “According to the World Bank’s most recent Global Economic Prospects Report, South Africa’s GDP likely contracted by 7.8% in 2020.
“This is three times more than the average contraction experienced in other Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) and 3% greater than other commodity exporting EMDEs. To change this trajectory, the government should implement mechanisms that would promote more exploration and greenfield projects.”
The National Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure confirmed that some roads would be closed off in Cape Town.
“There is a no-fly zone over the Parliament precinct and the areas surrounding it.
“No civilian aircraft or remotely piloted aircraft system (drones) are permitted in the restricted area,” said police spokesperson Brenda Muridili.