Victory to spur referendum call
SCOTTISH independence supporters are calling Thursday’s election the most important in the nation’s history as they vow that if they win a majority in the devolved parliament, they will push for another referendum on breaking from the UK.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) is close to controlling the devolved parliament, known as Holyrood, outright in Thursday’s election.
The only time the SNP have won a majority before in 2011, Britain’s then-Prime Minister David Cameron bowed to pressure and agreed to a referendum in 2014. Scots then voted by 55-45% to remain in the more than 300-year-old union.
However, even if they win a majority, there are no defined rules for how Scotland can force another referendum. The British government says the law means that Scotland would require the permission of the British parliament, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he will reject any such demand.
Without a clear democratic path to another referendum, the SNP will need to exert political, moral, or legal pressure to force another vote.
If the SNP – along with the Greens, who also support independence – win a majority, they will claim they have an undeniable right to hold another referendum. Regardless of the result, Johnson is expected to turn down any request. This will result in “political trench warfare” between the Scottish and British government over who has the power to call a referendum, according to James Mitchell, a professor of politics at Edinburgh University.
Mitchell said the independence movement will use street protests and political stunts to highlight what they say is Scotland being denied the right to decide its future. Scotland leader Nicola Sturgeon has said if the SNP wins a majority and Covid-19 pandemic is over, she will pass legislation to hold a new referendum by the end of 2023. She will then dare the British government to challenge the decision in the courts.
Under the Scotland Act – which set up the Scottish parliament – “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England” is a matter reserved for Britain’s parliament. However, the matter has never been tested in court and lawyers and academics disagree over whether the Scottish parliament could have the power to call a referendum. Sturgeon is facing pressure from some nationalists to call a referendum without the British parliament’s permission.
But the independence movement could then struggle to gain international recognition if it won.